Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.

Expect to find a mostly MODERATE avalanche danger in the Mountains of SE Utah including the La Sal and Abajo Ranges. Expect to find a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on slopes steeper than 35 degrees on E-N-NW facing slopes at and below treeline where a very sensitive surface hoar layer can still be found. Great skiing and Riding conditions can still be found out there despite some sun and wind damage.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Perfect Powder and sunny skies were on tap in the La Sals today and the Mountains of SE Utah are blessed with some great conditions on shady side slopes below treeline at the moment. Sunny sides are on the brink of a corn cycle but we are on the verge of yet another series of storms lined up to hit our region that will stall out the progress of spring skiing at least until next week if weather forecasters are right. More on that to come...Were at 132% of normal snowpack in the La Sals and 140% in the Abajos. We have about 70 inches of snow on the ground at our Gold Basin Study Plot.

Access to La Sal Trailheads from both the east and west sides have been cleared by San Juan County. Thanks Guys.

Grooming on the La Sal Nordic Track as hampered by technical difficulties and broken snow machines, nonetheless, LUNA volunteers have managed to groom nearly the entire Nordic Track with the exception of the upper Nordic Loop on the East side of Geyser Pass. The road is groomed to the pass, as is the Gold Basin Road and the Lower Nordic Loop. Hopefully we'll get our sled back from the shop this week for some more grooming before the weekend.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Spectacular avalanches in Gold Basin and Horse Creek in the La Sals - Any more to report?

Tour yesterday into Upper Mill Creek revealed even more recent avi activity:

R4D3 Arrowhead Slide NW face of Haystack - BIG!

Dry Fork of Mill Creek - S. facing with 4 separate start zones.

Widespread class II - III+ activity in:

Noriega's face - Widespread class II activity across face at convexity. Pretty much Wall to wall but low.

Exxon's - Wall to Wall class II+

Tukno NE face - Multiple class II avi's at various elevations above and below cliffs

Tukunikuvatz N Ridge - Small Class II pocket low in Red snow cirque - lot's still hanging.

Middle Cirque - Class III low observer's right, deep class II NE face of TUK see pic HERE.

Horse Creek - Massive class III from Coyote Chute to Laurel Peak. Tough to see actual boundaries.

ABAJOS:

East face of South Peak Small Class II Pocket mid slope.

East Face of Abajo Peak Large class II -III below radio towers.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.

Winds have been very well behaved across the region of late and avalanche dangers are on the decline. But, However, Hold on, we still have some problems out there. I was hoping that with our increasing depth, we would start to see a strengthening of the snowpack that hasn't taken place just yet. We are seeing a decline in the avalanche danger rating based more on the passage of time with no new snow, than on a major strengthening of the persistent weak layers in our snowpack.

Most notably, is the presence of of a buried layer of Surface Hoar about 32-34" below the snow surface. This layer failed repeatedly in snowpit tests today showing very clean shears and the ability to propogate over distances, citing the potential for slab avalanche release. I was hoping to see better results on the layer today but surface hoar in particular can remain active for weeks once buried. To make matters worse, it is known to be most active when buried 8-34" down in the snowpack. This layer does not seem to be everywhere, unfortunately, the most likely place to find it is on E-N-NW facing slopes at and below treeline that are relatively open. Exactly where the best skiing is likely to be found. Areas with a thick tree canopy won't have and above treeline slopes are unlike to have it as well. It appears as a gray band about 1/2 thick in a snow profile. Do yourself a favor and take a look for this layer before you dive into anything steeper than about 35 degrees on shady side slopes.


THREAT #2

No problem identified.
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
No probability identified.
No size identified.
No trend identified.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

National Weather Service Forecast for 10,000 Ft. :

A series of disturbances is set up to move across SE Utah over the next 5 days. Timing and strength of these storms is uncertain at this point although each one appears to be stronger than it's predecessor.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. East southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Thursday: A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Breezy, with a south southeast wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 18. South southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Saturday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 16. Sunday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 30.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We would like to thank the hard working volunteers at the Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. Without their help the center would not meet it's funding or staffing requirements. Thanks all! If you would like more information about donating to the Friends or simply helping out, click here..

This advisory will expire in 48 hours.

We cannot receive messages on our 259-SNOW line. If you would like to leave us an observation or a message, you my reach us at 435-636-3363.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.