Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.

Expect to find a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger in the Mountains of Se Utah including the La Sal and Abajo Ranges. Great skiing and Riding conditions can still be found out there despite some sun and wind damage. As our snowpack deepens, we should start to see some stabilization, but we are not there yet. Cracking and collapsing are still being noted and stability tests are still showing very weak interfaces between layers in the snowpack. it is not "green light" conditions here in SE Utah yet although I expect things to get more solid as our snowpack gets deeper. Patience required...


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Mostly cloudy skies and windy conditions will be found in the Mountains of SE Utah today with SW winds in advance of the next storm to hit our region. Only trace amounts of snow have fallen so far. Good skiing and riding conditions can still be found on shady side slopes below treeline. Above treeline and on sunny aspects expect sun and winds crusts..

Access to La Sal Trailheads from both the east and west sides have been cleared by San Juan County. Thanks Guys.

Grooming on the La Sal Nordic Track as hampered by technical difficulties and broken snow machines, nonetheless, LUNA volunteers have managed to groom nearly the entire Nordic Track with the exception of the upper Nordic Loop on the East side of Geyser Pass. The road is groomed to the pass, as is the Gold Basin Road and the Lower Nordic Loop.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Spectacular avalanches in Gold Basin and Horse Creek in the La Sals - Any more to report?

Tour yesterday into Upper Mill Creek revealed even more recent avi activity:

R4D3 Arrowhead Slide NW face of Haystack - BIG!

Dry Fork of Mill Creek - S. facing with 4 separate start zones.

Widespread class II - III+ activity in:

Noriega's face - Widespread class II activity across face at convexity. Pretty much Wall to wall but low.

Exxon's - Wall to Wall class II+

Tukno NE face - Multiple class II avi's at various elevations above and below cliffs

Tukunikuvatz N Ridge - Small Class II pocket low in Red snow cirque - lot's still hanging.

Middle Cirque - Class III low observer's right, deep class II NE face of TUK see pic HERE.

Horse Creek - Massive class III from Coyote Chute to Laurel Peak. Tough to see actual boundaries.

ABAJOS:

East face of South Peak Small Class II Pocket mid slope.

East Face of Abajo Peak Large class II -III below radio towers.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.

SW Winds moving snow around. Drifting possible on W-N-E facing slopes. Snowpit tests we did yesterday revealed continued weaknesses at one meter in depth on Surface Hoar and on a density change in the newest snow about 16- 18 inches below the surface. These weakness produced clean, fast shears in stability tests indicating the need for continued caution in your terrain selection here in SE Utah. We are still calling the avalanche danger CONSIDERABLE here in the mountains of SE Utah on slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Areas of highest likelihood for triggering a slide remain on NW-N-E facing slopes at and above treeline.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

We still have some pretty serious issues with our "old" snow. First is a buried layer of surface hoar that is now about 2-3 feet below the surface of the new snow. This layer continues to be reactive in snowpit tests. Last week I dug a lot of pits trying to determine the extent and distribution of the surface hoar layer and found it to be on open NE-NW facing slopes at and below treeline. On 2/26 this same layer, now over 3 feet deep is still very reactive. in other areas, There is a layer of near-surface facets at the same level in the snowpack, that was equally reactive in snowpit tests. Another classic SW snowpack situation. Combine that with depth hoar that is can still be found in the lower third of the snowpack (producing the dramatic collapses still being felt in thinner snowpack areas) and we've got all three of the classic types of persistent weak layers at play in our SE Utah snowpack. As always approach steep slopes with respect here in SE Utah. The large slides in the Middle Cirque and the NW face of Haystack seem to have broken out on this surface hoar layer on the 21st.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

National Weather Service Forecast for 10,000 Ft. :

Today:

A 20 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. South southeast wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight:

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Southeast wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday:

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 27. East wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday Night:

A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. North northwest wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Monday:

Partly sunny, with a high near 28. North northwest wind around 5 mph.

Monday Night:

Partly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Tuesday:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 33.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We would like to thank the hard working volunteers at the Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. Without their help the center would not meet it's funding or staffing requirements. Thanks all! If you would like more information about donating to the Friends or simply helping out, click here..

This advisory will expire in 48 hours.

We cannot receive messages on our 259-SNOW line. If you would like to leave us an observation or a message, you my reach us at 435-636-3363.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.