Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.

Good Conditions and lessening avalanche dangers should make for some great skiing and riding potential in the mountains of SE Utah right now. Some wind damage up high and sun crusts on South facing slopes should be expected.

We are calling the Avalanche Danger in SE Utah CONSIDERABLE with the possibility of upper elevation wind slabs on E-S-W facing slopes at and below ridgelines the primary danger area.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

1-3" of new now has fallen over the Mountains of SE Utah overnight. MOAB (SNOAB) got another inch over night and there is more on the way. What a winter. Conditions on the mountain should be excellent on more favorable wind protected shady side slopes. Sunny sides got a bit crusty over the last few days.

On Sunday, the San Juan County Road crew came up and cleared access to both the Geyser Pass Trailhead and the Dark Canyon access on the East Side. You guys ROCK!

Grooming on the La Sal Nordic Track as hampered by technical difficulties with catankerous snow machines on Tuesday but Michael and Tom still managed to groom into Gold Basin and on the Lower Meadow Loop. Good work guys.

RECENT ACTIVITY

Spectacular avalanches in GoldBasin and Horse Creek in the La Sals - Any more to report?

Widespread class II - III+ activity in:

Noriega's face - Widespread class II activity across face at convexity. Pretty much Wall to wall but low.

Exxon's - Wall to Wall class II+

Tukno NE face - Multiple class II avi's at various elevations above and below cliffs

Tukunikuvatz N Ridge - Small Class II pocket low in Red snow cirque - lot's still hanging.

Middle Cirque - Class III low observer's right, deep class II NE face of TUK see pic HERE.

Horse Creek - Massive class III from Coyote Chute to Laurel Peak. Tough to see actual boundaries.

ABAJOS:

East face of South Peak Small Class II Pocket mid slope.

East Face of Abajo Peak Large class II -III below radio towers.

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.

A few days have passed since our last significant snowfall and the snowpack has had time to settle out and adjust to the large load applied in the last storm. Winds have been blowing from all points of the compass since the end of the last storm and touchy wind slabs are a real possibility on all sopes above treeline steeper than 30 degrees. Wind affected slopes below treeline must be analyzed for stability as well.

THREAT #2
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

We still have some pretty serious issues with our "old" snow. First is a buried layer of surface hoar that is now about 2-3 feet below the surface of the new snow. This layer continues to be reactive in snowpit tests. Last week I dug a lot of pits trying to determine the extent and distribution of the surface hoar layer and found it to be on open NE-NW facing slopes at and below treeline. No surprise there. Unfortunately what I found where the surface hoar layer didn't exist, was a layer of near-surface facets at the same level in the snowpack, that was equally reactive in snowpit tests. Another classic SW snowpack situation. Combine that with depth hoar that is can still be found in the lower third of the snowpack (producing the dramatic collapses still being felt in thinner snowpack areas) and we've got all three of the classic types of persistent weak layers at play in our SE Utah snowpack. As always approach steep slopes with respect here in SE Utah. The large slide in the Middle Cirque seems to have broken out onthis surface hoar layer on the 21st.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

National Weather Service Forecast for 10,000 Ft. :

Today:

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 27. West northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight:

A 30 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 11. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Friday:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 29. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Friday Night:

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming southeast.

Saturday:

A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Breezy, with a south wind between 15 and 20 mph.

Saturday Night:

Snow likely. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday:

A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27.

Sunday Night:

A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Monday:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 31.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We would like to thank the hard working volunteers at the Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. Without their help the center would not meet it's funding or staffing requirements. Thanks all! If you would like more information about donating to the Friends or simply helping out, click here..

This advisory will expire in 48 hours.

We cannot receive messages on our 259-SNOW line. If you would like to leave us an observation or a message, you my reach us at 435-636-3363.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.