Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.

The best skiing and Riding conditions of the year are on tap in SE Utah at the moment. Light winds and 12-16 inches of new snow have combined to make for conditions described by one tourer as "heavenly". Light winds are keeping the Avalanche Danger in check and we've only raised the Danger Rating to CONSIDERABLE even though we've reached critical snow and water weight thresholds. CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger ratings are tough because they put a lot of the assessment burden on YOU, the backcountry traveler. Localized areas of instability likely exist but it is up to you to locate them. If uncomfortable with this task, keep your slopes angles low.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Stormy Skies parted for the first time in several days yesterday leaving 12 to 16 inches of new snow on the snowy Peaks of SE Utah. This time our snow stake in Gold Basin took the prize with 16 inches and the Abajos picked up 12". No rocks were visible in the mountains after this storm as the usually stripped-of-snow SW facing slopes have been left snow covered due to remarkably low winds. This significant factor will keep the already excellent skiing and riding conditions at the same high standard, while at the same time keeping a lid on the avalanche dangers which would normally skyrocket with a storm of this magnitude. Don't mistake this statement for Greenlight avalanche conditions however, there are still some issues so read on for more on that. Localized assessment of snowpack stability must be done before you or your party commit to avalanche terrain. Excellent skiing and riding is being found on slopes less than 30 degrees, so unless you are prepared to make a decision based on FACTS, not what you WANT to do at your commitment point, keep the slope angles below 30 degrees.

The plow crew is headed up to the Geyser Pass lot today and the road into Dark Canyon has already been cleared.

LUNA volunteers got out and packed the track into Gold Basin Yesterday with the roller, but haven't gotten out with the big groomer. SO, the road into Gold Basin is packed for skating but there is no 2-track for cross-country.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Several small slabs avalanches were noted on Sunday and some of them were human triggered. Nothing big enough to bury a skier or rider but the weakness they occurred on is now buried under 12" of snow.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.

Normally, 16 inches of new snow would immediately bump us up into the upper reaches of the Avalanche Danger Scale with critical values over 1" of water and 12" of new snow. Amazingly, however, winds have been Calm to Light and slab build-up very limited. For this reason we are keeping the Avalanche Danger Rating at CONSIDERABLE today. I also feel we are at the lower end of that danger rating. The small slides we were seeing Sunday were running on a lighter density layer within the new storm snow that fell Saturday night. These types of instabilities usually settle out relatively quickly. Remember, CONSIDERABLE hazard means that human triggered avalanches are still possible if not likely. This is a tough danger level to be at decision-wise. If you are unable to do localized stability analysis of any avalanche slope you are considering skiing or riding, back-off and head for something less than 30 degrees in steepness. Watch what the winds have done in the areas you are visiting, areas of thicker, wind drifted snow could be trouble. I think these areas will be limited with the lower velocity winds we've been having and great conditions will be found in the backcountry at the moment. It is up to you to make the difficult decision between risk and reward in the mountains of SE Utah at the moment. IF you are unsure what is going on where you are at, choose the conservative path.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Persistent weak layers in the form of depth hoar and buried faceted grains can be found at 1/3 height in the snowpack and lower. Collapsing and "whoomphing" on these layers is still happening in thinner (less than about 4 feet) snowpack areas indicating that the potential for these deep, persistent weak layers to produce an avalanche still exists. While unlikely to be triggered by the weight of human, an avalanche of this type could release into old snow producing a large slide with severe consequences. Thinner snowpack areas over convexities near treeline are the most likely areas for this kind of event.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

National Weather Service Forecast for 10,000 Ft. :

Today:

A 20 percent chance of snow after 11am. Increasing clouds, with a high near 28. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest.

Tonight:

A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 10. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Wednesday:

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 29. South southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Wednesday Night:

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east southeast.

Thursday:

A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night:

A 20 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 12.

Friday:

A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

As the season gets underway, we would like to thank the hard working volunteers at the Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. Without their help the center would not meet it's funding or staffing requirements. Thanks all! If you would like more information about donating to the Friends or simply helping out, click here..

This advisory will expire in 48 hours


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.