Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

This will be our last forecast for the 08-09 winter season. Thanks for another good year and have a great summer.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Continued dumpage with powder skiing and HIGH avalanche dangers in the mountains of SE Utah. Happy spring.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Powder Conditions remain the theme of early April with 11 inches of new snow measured since Thursday at the SNOTEL site above the Geyser Pass Trailhead. Accumulations up high are likely to be higher. This is on top of the 19" of new snow we've received in the past week. Heads up anyone heading for the mountains...it's still winter up there. In fact, it's looking rather wintery in Moab at the moment with an inch of snow in my front yard. Winter is just not giving up this year....It's a bit unusual to have such a run of powder skiing this late in the year but wintery powder conditions have been found up high for the last two weeks with no corn snow being reported at all. This snowy period has bumped our percentage of normal totals up to 81% and will help the spring corn skiing out considerably, if and when it gets here. We have about 62 inches of snow at our snowstake in Gold Basin.

Trailhead access is likely to be tough today with no plowing likely until Monday. 4wd required.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Lot's of activity in the San Juan mountains reported this past week with a similar snowpack to ours. No reports of activity from the La Sals or Abajos.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Link to the U.S. Avalanche danger scale here: utahavalanchecenter.org/education/dangerscale

For this time of year, we have a complex and varied snowpack. Most years, the snowpack would be settling out into a solid spring snowpack with more homogenous snow grains and a solid melt-freeze surface crust. Not so this year. With buried faceted grains due to continued cold temperatures and crazy dust layers in the snowpack, Sunny sides have been unusually active in the San Juan Mountains and the hazard remains in the mountains of SE Utah as well. With almost 30 inches of snow in the last week there is a real avalanche danger for the winter traveler. High winds from the north this week finally swung around to Southwesterly yesterday before the dumpage and topped out at 60 mph. This week of wind has been loading our normally safer sunny side slopes. The hazard from this last week and this last storm - winds have swung back to northerly again - will not be limited to north facing slopes. This hazard will also be present below treeline. Remember these snow totals came from below 10,000 feet and are likely to be on the low side. BE careful out there.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
No probability identified.
No size identified.
No trend identified.

The mountains of SE Utah are FOR SUREgoing to get active when the warm-up hits Sunday/Monday. Wet slides are probable on the Sunny sides tomorrow when the sun pops out with solar radiation and will wrap around to the shadier sides on Monday with plenty more solar gain and even warmer temperatures. When steeper slopes get wet for the next few days, it will not be a god time to be on them.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Mountain Weather for SE Utah at 10,000 ft:

Today: Snow and areas of blowing snow. High near 27. Blustery, with a west northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Tonight: Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 13. North wind between 10 and 15 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. East northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Tuesday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

This forecast will expire in 48 hours.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.