Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

AVALANCHE WATCH »

The risk of an avalanche is expected to increase significantly but the timing and location are still uncertain. Stay tuned for updates.
Notice:

Snow has arrived and continues to fall in the Mountains of SE Utah. While not at warning levels yet, we are posting an "Avalanche Watch" as the snow continues to pile up on very weak old snow structures. We are at 9" of new snow containing 1.17 " of water in the La Sals with almost the exact same in the Abajos. More snow is forecast to arrive tonight so please make conservative travel decisions in the Mountains of SE Utah at this time.

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Improving snow conditions, Rising avalanche danger. Seems like they always go together down here in SE Utah. You can avoid the problem completely if you keep the slope angles below 30 degrees - which isn't a bad idea right now - especially if the forecast proves true. CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger at and above treeline in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Heads up.

RECENT ACTIVITY

No visibility. Expect some activity on North facing terrain with all the South Winds we've had with this snow.

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Link to the U.S. Avalanche danger scale here: utahavalanchecenter.org/education/dangerscale

We've hit that magic "inch of water" threshold that is supposed to get all avalanche forecasters and enthusiasts buzzing with excitement. Well, we are excited because we really need some new snow and conditions are getting better. We're also gripped, because we now have dense, slabby wind drifted snow piling up on a very weak old snowpack structure (see snowpit from Saturday here ) that is likely to cause us some avalanches soon, if not already. Winds from the South have been blowing at slab building speeds since the first snowflake fell with this storm making an even more dense (stronger) layer of new snow over older, less dense (weaker) layers of buried faceted snow grains. This is the classic Southwestern recipe for avalanches in Utah and Colorado and we've spiced it up a bit with some La Sal winds. Yeehaw.

We are calling the Avalanche Danger CONSIDERABLE on all near and above treeline E-NE-and NW facing slopes. Expect to find a MODERATEhazard elsewhere. This applies to avalanche slopes of 30 degrees of steepness or higher AND their runout zones which may be considerably less steep or even flat. Stay clear and travel safely in the backcountry right now.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Mountain Weather for SE Utah at 10,000 ft: Looks snowy....

This Afternoon: Snow and areas of blowing snow. Some thunder is also possible. High near 24. Breezy, with a south southwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Tonight: Snow and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 10. Windy, with a south southwest wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow, mainly before 11am. High near 20. East southeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -10. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph. Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Thursday: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Thursday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 9. Friday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Friday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.