Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

AVALANCHE WATCH »

The risk of an avalanche is expected to increase significantly but the timing and location are still uncertain. Stay tuned for updates.
Notice:

Snow has yet to arrive in SE Utah, and for that reason we are letting Friday night's forecast ride, with an updated weather forecast. Snow totals and avalanche danger unchanged, but watch new snow totals, Any new snow will cause a spike in the avalanche hazard as we load VERYWEAKold surface and near-surface snow structures.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Wind. Some good skiing and riding CANbe found if you are willing to snoop around or go waaaaaay skiers left in the N. Woods. Getting tracked up in there so it will be nice if and when this snow ever arrives! We really need it. Lot's of wind stripping and wind damage out there. Unwilling to drop the avalanche danger below MODERATE on mid and upper elevation E-NE-NW facing slopes due to winds yesterday and this past week. Localized pockets of wind slab exist. Human triggered avalanches still possible in upper Alpine areas. Expect this danger to increase greatly with new snow. It is still progged to arrive today....


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Our snowpack totals have slipped to below 100% of normal in the La Sals (108%in the Abajos) and driving up from the south you can really appreciate that fact. The La Sals look really barren. With the bulk of our SE Utah snowpack having fallen in December, the wind and sun have had a lot of time to work on the sunny slopes we see from the highway and from Moab. What is surprising is the great quality snow we found on the North Face of Abajo Peak on Thursday. On a short tour up North Canyon in the Blue Mountains out of Monticello, we found good creamy powder skiing in nicely spaced trees on a steep NW facing slope. What we found was better than expected and more of this type of skiing can be found if you head out to the right locations which are, as usual, mid elevation E-NE-NW facing slopes. If you're looking for something different, check your map out and go check out the Abajos. There is easy access, some really good terrain and new snow (hopefully) on the way. The old Blue Mountain ski resort is a great tour and that's just the start. San Juan County is quick to plow access along the Blue Mountain loop road as well. As of this afternoon, we'd only had a trace of new snow and our Gold Basin study plot stands at 38 inches. You can still find good snow in the North Wood s too.

The roads to the Geyser Pass Trailhead and the Dark Canyon Trailhead are plowed and in great shape providing access for 2wd vehicles. If we get any of the forecast snow today, access will no doubt be tougher.

LUNA volunteers groomed the the Geyser Pass Road Friday and the Upper Nordic Loop on the East side of the pass. Good job Michael and Tony.


RECENT ACTIVITY

We'll be watching closely as the snow piles up into next week. I expect some action depending on our snow/wind totals.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Link to the U.S. Avalanche danger scale here: utahavalanchecenter.org/education/dangerscale

Right now, there is not a lot going on in the avalanche realm. We're two weeks out from the last storm. and there is not a lot of slab tension being found as people get farther into the mountains. What is being consistently found are some very weak layers above and below a rime crust that formed at the start of our last storm. With winds this past week and yesterday I am hesitant to lower the Avalanche Danger below MODERATE on mid and upper elevation E-NE-NW facing slopes above treeline, but I think we are on the lower end of that. RIGHTNOW.

So far we've picked only a skiff of new snow but expect the avalanche danger to rise in relation to the wind and snow we receive from this next series of storms. We've got an old snowpack with several weak layers in the upper foot or so and it is not going to take much snow to push us into an avalanche cycle.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Mountain Weather for SE Utah at 10,000 ft:

Today: Snow likely before 11am, then snow and areas of blowing snow after 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Windy, with a south southeast wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Tonight: Snow and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Windy, with a south southwest wind between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Monday: Snow likely, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Monday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 10. South wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.