SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT |
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Sledders! Please keep the road below the Geyser Pass Winter trailhead parking lot open. You can park below the sled hill but DON'T BLOCK THE ROAD! If incidents and inconsiderate behaviour continue below the sled hill the Forest Service may have to close this area to parking. The Forest Service has had a lot of complaints. |
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BOTTOM LINE
Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)
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Danger Rose Tutorial
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4-5 inches of new, dense snow will help to improve conditions in the mountains of SE Utah. Modest snow totals but high water content and increasing winds have upped danger rating to CONSIDERABLE on shady side slopes above treeline. Also be careful below treeline in areas where warm, unconsolidated snow has been running with human triggers. This has been happening in the San Juans, with a similar snowpack to ours. |
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CURRENT CONDITIONS |
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This first and second cells in a series of small disturbances forecast to hit the state of Utah has left a warm, wet blanket of snow over over upper elevations and rain at lower elevations. The La Sals and Abajos have received a relatively thin layer compared to some northern regions. We've had 4-5 inches of snow in the La Sals containing 8 tenths of an inch of water. Pretty heavy stuff. While not large amounts, this dense, fresh snow will go a long way towards filling things in and improving the conditions in SE Utah. Winds have come up and the avalanche danger is on the increase. More warm weather and snow are on the way. We're at 103 % of normal snowpack in the La Sals, 102% in the Abajos with 38 inches of snow on our total stake in Gold Basin. The La Sals seem to be doing better with this storm cycle than the Abajos.
The Roads to all trailheads are passable with 4wd or Chains. This may change if the winds continue to blow and falling temperatures lower the elevation of the snowline. San Juan County won't be up to clear the roads until Monday.
Luna Groomed up into Gold Basin Friday and also did the Lower Nordic Loops, some of this work is no doubt erased but there is still a great firm base out there on the groomed trails. |
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RECENT ACTIVITY |
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Nothing of note. |
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THREAT #1 |
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PROBABILITY |
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Over the next
48 hours.
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Link to the U.S. Avalanche danger scale here: utahavalanchecenter.org/education/dangerscale
Dense new snow falling onto older, weaker recrystallized snow is always a good set-up for avalanche activity. While there has not been a lot of new snow, water totals for this storm for the Central La Sals are reaching 8/10ths of an inch of water. This figure is not so alarming by itself but, in the last 24 hours the winds have come up to bulls-eye hourly average wind speeds for slab avalanche formation. These winds from the SW combined with above threshold water totals are making for an increasingly risky avalanche situation. For this reason I'm bumping the avalanche danger rating up a notch to reflect a CONSIDERABLE Hazard at and above treeline. There may be areas favored by SW flow where the hazard may even be reaching higher levels, such as South Mountain. Heads up as we continue to pile up the snow. |
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THREAT #2 |
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PROBABILITY |
SIZE |
TREND |
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Over the next
24 hours.
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Possibility of wet loose avalanches entraining large amounts of snow and gouging into older faceted grains. This has been happening in the San Juans at lower elevations where the snow is unfrozen and unconsolidated. Cooling temperatures are starting to mitigate this problem, but heads up until the lower elevation snow gets re-consolidated. |
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MOUNTAIN WEATHER |
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La Sal Mountain Weather for 10,000 ft: Snowy period for next 4 days, looks promising.
Today: Snow. High near 36. South southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Tonight: Snow. Low around 23. South southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Monday: Snow. High near 28. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Monday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 15. West southwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming north northwest. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. North northwest wind around 10 mph. Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. |
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GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS |
Our yearly AIARE level I avalanche course will be held this year from Friday, January 30th - Sunday February 1st. Proceeds from this class go directly to the Friends of La Sal Avalanche Center and help pay for the forecasting and education services provided by the Center. Please call Dave or Max 435-636-3363 to sign up for the class or get more information. |
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. |
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This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:
The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list. |
