Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

Sledders! Please keep the road below the Geyser Pass Winter trailhead parking lot lot open. You can park below the sled hill but DON'T BLOCK THE ROAD! If incidents and inconsiderate behaviour continue below the sled hill the Forest Service may have to close this area to parking. The Forest Service has had a lot of complaints.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

2-3 inches of new, dense snow will help to improve conditions in the mountains of SE Utah. Small storm totals and light winds helping to prevent a major spike in the avalanche danger though have upped danger rating to MODERATE on shady side slopes above treeline. Also be careful below treeline in areas where warm, unconsolidated snow has been running in the San Juans, with a similar snowpack to ours.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

This first storm in a series of small disturbances progged to hit the state of Utah has left a warm, wet  blanket of snow over over upper elevations and rain at lower elevations. The La Sals and Abajos have received a releatively thin layer compared to some northern regions. We've had 2-3 inches of snow in the La Sals containing 4 tenths of an inch of water. Pretty heavy stuff. While not large amounts, this dense fresh snow will go a long way towards filling things in and improving the conditions in SE Utah. More warm weather and snow are on the way. We're at 101 % of normal snowpack in the La Sals, 105% in the Abajos with 37 inches of snow on our total stake in Gold Basin. Pray for snow.

The Roads to all trailheads are passable with 4wd or Chains.

Luna Groomed up into Gold Basin Friday and also did the Lower Nordic Loops.


RECENT ACTIVITY

   Nothing of note.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Link to the U.S. Avalanche danger scale here: utahavalanchecenter.org/education/dangerscale

Dense new snow falling onto older, weaker recrystallized snow is always a good set-up for avalanche activity. The good news here is that the snow totals are light and the winds have been very well behaved. We had a few hours of slab building winds after midnight last night so have upped the Avalanche Danger Rating to MODERATE on E-NE-NW facing slopes at and above treeline. The saving grace here is the low snow totals. Our old snow surface is very weak and any new snow that comes in will be very prone to avalanching. Expect the hazard to spike even higher if and when we pick up any combination of significant snowfall or wind. For now light snow totals and forgiving winds are keeping the avalanche danger down.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 8 hours.

Possibility of wet loose avalanches entraining large amounts of snow and gouging into older faceted grains. This has been happening in the San Juans at lower elevations where the snow is unfrozen and unconsolidated.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

La Sal Mountain Weather for 10,000 ft:  Snowy period for next 4 days, but small snow totals forecast

Today: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tonight: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Sunday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 39. South southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Sunday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. South southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Monday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 30.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

Our yearly AIARE level I avalanche course will be held this year from Friday, January 30th - Sunday February 1st. Proceeds from this class go directly to the Friends of La Sal Avalanche Center and help pay for the forecasting and education services provided by the Center. Please call Dave or Max 435-636-3363 to sign up for the class or get more information.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.