Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

Sledders! Please keep the road below the Geyser Pass Winter trailhead parking lot lot open. You can park below the sled hill but DON'T BLOCK THE ROAD! If incidents and inconsiderate behaviour continue below the sled hill the Forest Service may have to close this area to parking. The Forest Service has had a lot of complaints.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

The avalanche danger in the mountains of SE Utah is generally LOW, with a slight chance of lingering instability at the upper elevations due to wind transport and deposition. We are keeping a MODERATE hazard in the forecast above treeline in the Alpine Zone on SE-E-N facing slopes where you could trigger localized pockets of wind drifted snow.

Decent powder conditions can be found on shady side slopes if you can find a stretch of snow undamaged by La Sal winds. Supportable crusts are also forming on S. Facing slopes for some corn-like conditions. Get an early start if you're looking for these, as they won't last late in the day.  


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Good conditions for skiing and riding are not so easy to find right now. If you're looking for powder, you're going to have to explore a bit, and with relatively stable snow conditions, your explorations could be rewarded. Low and Mid elevation E-N-NW facing slopes are your best bet.  There are even some supportable conditions on south facing slopes developing. With these warm days, they won't last very late in the day. Hopefully well get some snow later this week and change things up a bit.  We've got about 38 inches of snow at the Gold Basin study plot and we're really in need of some more. We've dropped to 105% of normal snowpack in the La Sals and 112% in the Abajos. 

The Geyser Pass Road and the Dark Canyon Road for access on the east side of the La Sals are both in good shape.

Luna volunteers groomed up and over Geyser Pass Monday and also did the upper and lower Nordic loops. The Gold Basin Road was groomed today. Conditions are excellent for cross-country skiing on the groomed trails.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Some recent point releases noted in the forest between Exxon's Folly and Tukno. Very shallow areas with rotten snow stripped to the ground and rock as a result of warming.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Link to the U.S. Avalanche danger scale here: utahavalanchecenter.org/education/dangerscale

Not much going on in avalanche land at the moment. Keeping a MODERATE  possibility of avalanches in wind affected areas above 11,000 feet in the forecast. The avalanche danger is low elsewhere. The winds were really ripping up high yesterday and the possibility of localized wind pockets being released by the weight of a skier or snow machine is real. Look out for rounded, smooth depositions of snow on steep slopes, especially East and SE facing slopes.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 8 hours.

Warmer high elevation temperatures are increasing the risk of wet loose, and wet slab avalanches on sunny side slopes. Expect the avalanche danger to rise to MODERATE levels starting on SE facing slopes and following the sun around to W facing slopes in the PM hours. The sun (via meltwater percolation) breaks down the bonds between snow grains and avalanches run on a daily basis in warm weather. We are getting into one of these cycles, so stay off the sunny side slopes after they've been baked. If the slope you are on is getting really wet and soft, it's time to get out of there and onto less sunny, or less steep terrain.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

La Sal Mountain Weather for 10,000 ft:  Snow coming, but not much in the forecast. 

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 24. Calm wind. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph. Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Calm wind. Thursday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph. Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Friday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Saturday: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Sunday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

Our yearly AIARE level I avalanche course will be held this year from Friday, January 30th - Sunday February 1st. Proceeds from this class go directly to the Friends of La Sal Avalanche Center and help pay for the forecasting and education services provided by the Center. Please call Dave or Max 435-636-3363 to sign up for the class or get more information.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.