Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

The La Sal Avalanche Center will be hosting a FREE Avalanche Awareness Seminar on Monday January 12th at 6:00 PM. at the Grand County Library. Anyone interested in Avalanche Phenomena, Mountain Travel or Winter Rescue are invited to attend. Call 435-636-3363 for more details.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

MODERATE Hazard of Avalanches in the Mountains of SE Utah. Good snow conditions on shady aspects, E -NE-NW. Enjoy. Possibility of Wind slabs at upper elevation in wind deposition zones. Lingering posibility of deep slab releases on MId to Upper Elevation slopes that did not slide during the last cycle. Our weather patterns of late have been very favorable for building the overall strength of the snowpack and as our snow gradually deepens without traumatic loading.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Excellent skiing and riding conditions STILL hanging on in SE Utah. Thank You. Sunny side slopes are a bit crusty but great powder skiing can still be found on the shadier aspects. A combination of continued light snowfall, cold temperatures and high relative humidity have kept the surface snow soft and kept the base from rotting out from under us. We've had 9" of new snow in 3 small storms since last Saturday and we have 41 inches at the Gold Basin Study Plot. We're at 124% of normal in the La Sals, 130% in the Abajos.

The Geyser Pass road is in great shape. It's slippery in a few spots, so keep the speed down! We've had some close calls on the road up there. Additionally, San Juan County is reporting that they have plowed the road to Dark Canyon to the east side winter trailhead at the corral below Dark Canyon Lake.

LUNA was up Friday and groomed the Lower Nordic Loops and into Gold Basin.


RECENT ACTIVITY

No activity noted with these last three small snowstorms except some loose point releases.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Link to the U.S. Avalanche danger scale here: utahavalanchecenter.org/education/dangerscale

New snow slabs created by the wind over a weak layer of surface hoar from 01/02/09 are the number one concern right now above treeline. This is where the winds have had their biggest effect. Natural avalanche are unlikely but human triggered avalanches are possible above treeline in wind loaded areas. Take the time to dig with your shovel and look at the layering, this buried surface Hoar layer will stand out in places like a sore thumb. Lack of a larger new snow load is keeping this layer from being more active at this time.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

While the likelihood of triggering a deep slab avalanche continues to decline, there is still a possibility of triggering one of these monsters. A pit dug in the Coyote chute Friday revealed the likely culprit - a new bridging slab of strong  snow over very weak basal faceted grains. This is the classic scenario for deep slabs. A large deep slab avalanche was released in Telluride 2 days ago, and our snowpacks are very similar. While unlikey, this avalanche danger has big consequences. Borrowing from Brett at the UAC, we're calling the danger of these slides "scary moderate" where the likelihood of triggering an avalanche isn't great, but the consequences of triggering one are.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

La Sal Mountain Weather for 10,000 ft: 

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 27. West northwest wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 11. North northwest wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. North northwest wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 16. North wind around 5 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 31. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 32. Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 31. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

Our yearly AIARE level I avalanche course will be held this year from Friday, January 30th - Sunday February 1st. Proceeds from this class go directly to the Friends of La Sal Avalanche Center and help pay for the forecasting and education services provided by the Center. Please call Dave or Max 435-636-3363 to sign up for the class or get more information.

We will also be teaching some Avalanche Awareness seminars  this winter. The first is scheduled for Monday, January 12th at 6:00 PM at the Grand County Library. These FREE seminars run about 2 hours and cover avalanche phenomena, basic travel techniques and self-rescue equipment overviews. They are a good opportunity to learn about the hazards of backcountry winter travel. Suitable for skiers, hikers, snow machiners, hunters and snowboarders. 


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.