Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

MODERATE Hazard of Avalanches in the Mountains of SE Utah. Upper elevation winds moving new snow around with recent surface hoar as possible weak layer under wind transported snow, SE thru NE facing most dangerous. Deep slab instabilities still possible. Good luck finding, I mean DON'T, find them.

Good powder riding and skiing in areas unaffected by the sun before the new snow from last Saturday onward. Very light snow, light winds and cold temperatures making for excellent skiing and riding especially below treeline. Early season snow coverge and ground hazards still exist.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Excellent skiing and riding conditions still exist in the Mountains of SE Utah at the moment. Continuing light snowfall, low velocity winds and very cold temperatures have come together to produce a some awesome powder. A supportable base with a goose down surface don't always co-exist down at these latitudes this time of year so we can be thankful. We have 41" of snow at our Gold Basin study plot. We've measured about 7" of super light snow since last Saturday.

The Geyser Pass Road didn't see much snowfall so it's in good shape. As always 4wd or chains recommended. Additionally, San Juan County is reporting that they have plowed the road to Dark Canyon to the east side winter trailhead at the corral below Dark Canyon Lake.

LUNA was up Tuesday and groomed the Lower Nordic Loops, into Gold Basin, and up and over Geyser Pass. in an awesome 2-stroke push, they even did the Upper Nordic Loops. I skated into Gold Basin that afternoon and the conditions are excellent. Good job Matt and Clark.


RECENT ACTIVITY

No activity noted with these last two small snowstorms.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Link to the U.S. Avalanche danger scale here: utahavalanchecenter.org/education/dangerscale

Wind Slabs over the Surface Hoar development from 01-02-09 are a primary concern in the avalanche equation right now. Unusually cold temps and cloud cover have preserved the fragile Surface Hoar crystals that are usually destroyed at this latitude before they can become a buried weak layer. Sustained winds from the NW creating additional hazard on SE facing slopes as well so heads up on the usually user friendly SE facing slopes. 7" of new snow since Saturday and cold temperatures have left plenty of snow available for wind transport and slab build up above treeline. Snow geeks should keep an eye on this surface hoar layer, it may become a player when we get heavier snow again. ...Check out this surface hoar!: some of these crystals were 4 inches long: www.avalanche.org/~lsafc/aviphotos/LaSalPhotos08-09/01-02-09,LaSalSurfaceHoar,Medara.jpg

Check out this powerful interview from one of the survivors of the 12/27/08 accident involving 8 snowmobilers in B.C. www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081231.wvavalnche1231/VideoStory/National/home


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Snows since mid -December now settled into cohesive slab of stonger snow over weaker base layers. Possibility of deep, old snow releases still exists in SE Utah (and much of the west). These types of releases are very difficult to predict other than to know that the conditions they occur under exist. A slab of stronger snow may allow a skier or snowmachine out onto it quite a ways before the unwary traveler hits a trigger point - likely a thinner area near rocks or brush - catching the victim far away from any island of safety the initial entry into the slide path may have provided. Snowmobiliers! Stay clear of the runout zones of avalanche paths...Skiers! your puny ski cuts don't work on these monsters. Beware!


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

La Sal Mountain Weather for 10,000 ft: 

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Tonight: A 50 percent chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Southwest wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 25. West northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 29. North northwest wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 11. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 30. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 29. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 30.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

Our yearly AIARE level I avalanche course will be held this year from Friday, January 30th - Sunday February 1st. Proceeds from this class go directly to the Friends of La Sal Avalanche Center and help pay for the forecasting and education services provided by the Center. Please call Dave or Max 435-636-3363 to sign up for the class or get more information.

We will also be teaching some Avalanche Awareness seminars  this winter. The first is scheduled for Monday, January 12th at 6:00 PM at the Grand County Library. These FREE seminars run about 2 hours and cover avalanche phenomena, basic travel techniques and self-rescue equipment overviews. They are a good opportunity to learn about the hazards of backcountry winter travel. Suitable for skiers, hikers, snow machiners, hunters and snowboarders. 


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.