Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

AVALANCHE WARNING »

Dangerous avalanche conditions are occuring or are imminent. Backcountry travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Notice:

THE LA SAL AVALANCHE CENTER HAS ISSUED AN AVALANCHE WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHESTERN UTAH. THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE LA SAL MOUNTAINS, THE ABAJO MOUNTAINS AND THE ELK RIDGE AREA.

2-3 FEET OF NEW SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS HAS OVERLOADED BURIED LAYERS OF VERY WEAK SNOW NEAR THE GROUND, CREATING LARGE AND VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHES. BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDERNEATH ANY SLOPE STEEPER THAN ABOUT 30 DEGREES. LINGERING AVALANCHE DANGER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

The Road to the Geyser Pass trailhead is currently unplowed. San juan county is buried in new snow. Road crews are expected to try to clear the Geyser Pass road on Saturday.

Grooming will commence again when the roads are cleared.

Be careful out there!


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

HIGH Hazard of Avalanches in the Mountains of SE Utah. Much new snow, 2 - 3 feet plus in the Central La Sals, more than that in the Abajos, falling onto weak snow structures. There are also long lasting snow instabilities from a previous week of snow due to early season depth hoar development.

Improving coverage and excellent conditions await the backcountry traveler in SE Utah right now. Have an even better time by keeping the slope angles below 30 degrees and staying clear of avalanche runout zones. Have fun. Expect early season conditions with significant ground hazard and very deep snow in many areas. 


CURRENT CONDITIONS

We've had about 30 inches of new snow in the last week.  Coverage is improving and excellent skiing and riding conditions can be found in SE Utah right now. Lot's of new snow has fallen over the west in the last 10 days and there has been a rash of fatalities and close calls involving snow slides There have been 3 fatalities in Utah alone. Please make conservative decisions in the backcountry this weekend.

We have about 42 inches of snow at our Gold Basin Study Plot. The La Sals have bumped upwards to 130% of normal for the season through this series of storms.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Several avalanches were observed 2 days ago, some of them natural releases and some of them snowmobile triggered. Largest of note was a natural avalanche in the Exxon's Folly Slide Path. This slide SS-NN-R2-D2 was about 250' wide by 2 feet deep and ran 600 vertical feet.  It took out the lower portion of the middle colouir and a large portion of the lower bowl left of center. There is still a lot of the starting zone left intact as hangfire.  We saw other class 2 slides over on Noriega's and in many more in the runouts of the smaller slide paths between Noriega's and Exxon's. From there we lost our visibility and the fun was over until we 'biled back down the Geyser Pass Road. On the way down we were able trigger of the road banks with hits from the snowmachines. It was pretty fun with no consequences, but the results we impressive. These road banks repeatedly released slides over 2 feet deep . They were small pockets, but sobering nonetheless. Check out this photo: www.avalanche.org/~lsafc/aviphotos/LaSalPhotos08-09/12-23-08,Geyser Pass Roadcut,DaveMedara.jpg

Link to crown profile:www.avalanche.org/~lsafc/snowpit/LaSalProfiles08-09/12-18-08,Juie%27s%20Backside-1.jpg from Julie's Backside slide on 12/18/08. This was BEFORE the last two feet of snow


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Link to the U.S. Avalanche danger scale here: utahavalanchecenter.org/education/dangerscale

New snow slabs have been built up in High elevation, Mid-elevation and even low elevation slopes (see avalanche activity) . Expect to to encounter a HIGH Avalanche Danger on upper elevation, and mid-elevation slopes from new and wind drifted snow. Our underlying snowpack is very weak. Steep mountain terrain should be avoided at this time. 


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Bridging slabs formed by snowfall from 12/13 onward are still weak enough to collapse under the weight of backcountry travelers. We had several collapses into this older snow 2 days ago and the snowpack was very LOUD. The  SE Utah snowpack is very weak, with Basal Faceted Crystals already straining under the weight of the last week's snow. Unfortunately this type of snowpack structure is very slow to gain strength and the weight of this latest snow will only make these persistent slabs more dangerous. Deep, old snow releases are possible in the mid and upper elevation slopes of SE utah at this time.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

La Sal Mountain Weather for 10,000 ft:  Relatively calm forecast through mid-week after today.

This Afternoon: Snow and areas of blowing snow. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as -15. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tonight: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -15. West northwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming south southwest. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16. Wind chill values as low as -15. South wind around 5 mph becoming west. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -1. Wind chill values as low as -10. Calm wind becoming east southeast between 5 and 10 mph. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 29. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 30.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

Our yearly AIARE level I avalanche course will be held this year from Friday, January 30th - Sunday February 1st. Proceeds from this class go directly to the Friends of La Sal Avalanche Center and help pay for the forecasting and education services provided by the Center. Please call Dave or Max 435-636-3363 to sign up for the class or get more information.

We will also be teaching some Avalanche Awareness seminars  this winter. The first is scheduled for Monday, January 12th at 6:00 PM at the Grand County Library. These FREE seminars run about 2 hours and cover avalanche phenomena, basic travel techniques and self-rescue equipment overviews. They are a good opportunity to learn about the hazards of backcountry winter travel. Suitable for skiers, hikers, snow machiners, hunters and snowboarders. 


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.