Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

This is Dave Medara with the La Sal Avalanche Center. We are up and running for 2008-2009 season. We will be issuing twice weekly forecast through the 2008-2009 season. Forecasts are scheduled for Monday and Friday but this schedule may be altered to reflect changing conditions. Additional updates will be issued if the avalanche danger increases between scheduled forecasts. Budgetary restraints are the primary cause for this reduction in services. We are hoping that this is a temporary situation.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

CONSIDERABLE Hazard of Avalanches in the Mountains of SE Utah exists at this writing. Human triggered avalanches have been released in this storm cycle. Poor coverage for off-trail travel. Alpine bowls and gullies should be avoided or approached only after a thorough stablilty analysis. If you want to ski the steeps, do yourself a favor and head to a ski area. You won't like the results of any analysis you do on the snowpack around here anyways. 


CURRENT CONDITIONS

If you stay on the roads and trails, the skiing is great. If you travel off roads and into the Backcountry, it's horrible. Bottom line. We've had over a foot of snow in the last 5 days in the La Sals and double that in Abajos. The off trail travels is getting better in SE Utah, but we're getting off to a really late start and the snow coverage is still inadequate. This last storm cell places us at about 80% of normal snowpack in our region.

The Geyser Pass road is passable by 4wd and high clearance vehicles. It looks like it won't be plowed until Monday. They've had a lot of snow in SJ County and I think all thier Overtime is used up!

LUNA groomed into Gold Basin today and also groomed the Lower Meadows. It is sweet!


RECENT ACTIVITY

Human triggerd avalanche triggered on the back side of Julie's glade Friday. HS-AS-R3-D2... Meaning that this avalanche, though pretty small, pulled out a sizeable chunk of snow relative to the size of the path. If the skier who triggered it (myself) would have been caught, there could have been consequences. I triggered it from a safe spot near the edge of the slide in a classic thinner snowpack area after traversing over where the crown eventiually broke into stonger thicker snow. The crown face was over three feet deep and the pocket was about 60 feet wide. I have never seen this small pocket release in 15 years of skiing the La Sals. Heads Up!!


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Link to the U.S. Avalanche danger scale here: utahavalanchecenter.org/education/dangerscale

We've dropped the avalanche danger rating from HIGH to CONSIDERABLE in the mountains of SE Utah after more than 48 hours without significant snowfall or major winds. This does NOT mean no  or low Avalanche Danger!  Natural releasesare less likely, but where there is sufficient coverage, there is a real and continuing avalanche hazard in SE Utah. There are stout, thick slabs of windblown snow in deposition areas. These slabs are still causing collapsing and whoomphing under the weight of backcountry travlelers. This indicates that these cohesive slabs of wind deposited snow are still putting stress on a weak, faceted underlying snow grains These early season conditions: new snow, wind for slab development and weak depth hoar (advanced faceted crytals) at the ground level are the classic recipe for long-lasting instabilities in the snowpack. Keep the slope angles down and listen to the snowpack when it talks to you. There has been a rash of accidents across the west, both in ski areas and outside thier borders. This Depth Hoar/Faceted Grain basal layer is continually cited as the failure layer for the avalanches in these accidents. Do not trust these snowpack structures on or underneath, slopes of 30 degrees or steeper.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

La Sal Mountain Weather for 10,000 ft:

Today:

Cloudy, with a high near 28. East wind around 5 mph becoming west northwest.

Tonight:

A 50 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Monday:

Snow. High near 27. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Monday Night:

Snow. Low around 13. West southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Tuesday:

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 20. West southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday Night:

Snow, mainly before 11pm. Low around 3. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday:

A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 26.

Wednesday Night:

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 10.

Christmas Day:

A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 31.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

Our yearly AIARE level I avalanche course will be held this year from Friday, January 30th - Sunday February 1st. Proceeds from this class go directly to the Friends of La Sal Avalanche Center and help pay for the forecasting and education services provided by the Center. Please call Dave or Max 435-636-3363 to sign up for the class or get more information.

We will also be teaching some Avalanche Awareness seminars  this winter. The first is scheduled for Monday, January 12th at 6:00 PM at the Grand County Library. These FREE seminars run about 2 hours and cover avalanche phenomena, basic travel techniques and self-rescue equipment overviews. They are a good opportunity to learn about the hazards of backcountry winter travel. Suitable for skiers, hikers, snow machiners, hunters and snowboarders. 


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.