Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

We will be issuing twice weekly forecast through the 2008-2009 season. Forecasts are scheduled for Monday and Friday but this schedule may be altered to reflect changing conditions. Additional updates will be issued if the avalanche danger increases between scheduled forecasts. Budgetary restraints are the primary cause for this reduction in services. We are hoping that this is a temporary situation.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Moderate Hazard of Avalanches in the La Sal Mountains at this time.  Upper elevation wind loaded slopes on SE through NE through NW facing slopes will have the highest avalanche potential. Winds started out from the SW and rotated to NW during the day yesterday. Cross loaded gullies and  deep pockets in the downwind slopes are the potential trouble areas.

If the current weather forecast proves correct, expect a greater than proportional rise (compared to the normal rise with new snow depth) in the avalanche danger as more slopes get sufficient coverage to produce snow slides. 


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Mother nature has once again proven that we live in the Desert. We received 4 inches of new snow from Saturday night's storm, well short of the 12-18 inches forecast by the NWS. We are now at about 20 inches total at our Gold Basin study plot. This is the second storm in a row that has produced this snow total while snow totals check in over in the San Juans in the 14-16 inch range. This cruel fate has left us limping along at 60 percent of normal snowpack with inadequate coverage for real backcountry skiing. 

The NWS is sticking to thier guns and still calling for snow in the La Sals this week, but confidence is wavering. Keep your fingers crossed and do your snow dance. The winter is still very young.

Road is currently unplowed, but manageable if you have a 4wd vehicle. San Juan County is supposed to be up there to plow the road today.

There is some grooming planned for later in the week, but we are waiting for the storms to abate (if they really happen!) so the groomer's efforts are not wasted.

On a more somber note, Northern Utah got a big shot of snow out of this storm. Thier early season snowpack, like ours, was very weak and this new snow was enough to tip the balance. There were 2 seperate avalanche incidents involving skiers today, one of them tragically ended the life of an in-bounds skier at the Snowbird resort. Article here: www.sltrib.com/ci_11232264


RECENT ACTIVITY

Class 1 activity in Tukno Ne slide path and in Talking Mountain Cirque noted on Tuesday's tour. Nothing observed yet in this last storm but observations have been very limited.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 72 hours.

Link to the U.S. Avalanche danger scale here: utahavalanchecenter.org/education/dangerscale

Moderate avalanche danger. Newest snow pushes us from low end of Moderate Avalanche Danger to the upper end of the scale. With only 4" of new snow and very lean coverage, we're not in too dangerous of a situation yet. Many slopes at treeline and below simply do not have enough snow cover on them to produce an avlalanche right now. We have a very weak underlying snowpack with well developed faceted crystals wherever there is snow coverage. Collapsing and whoomping were noted Sunday on a Northwest facing slope below treeline indicating potentially unstable snowpack structures. As the snow piles up this week, we could get into a serious avalanche cycle so heads up and stay tuned.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

La Sal Mountain Weather for 10,000 ft:

Today:

Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 16. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Tonight:

Snow. Low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -10. South southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Tuesday:

Snow. High near 19. Wind chill values as low as -10. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Tuesday Night:

Snow. Low around 8. South southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Wednesday:

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 20. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday Night:

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday:

A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23.

Thursday Night:

A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8.

Friday:

A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

Our yearly AIARE level I avalanche course will be held this year from Friday, January 30th - Sunday February 1st. Proceeds from this class go directly to the Friends of La Sal Avalanche Center and help pay for the forecasting and education services provided by the Center. Please call Dave or Max 435-636-3363 to sign up for the class or get more information.

We will also be teaching some Avalanche Awareness seminars  this winter. The first is scheduled for Monday, January 12th at 6:00 PM at the Grand County Library. These FREE seminars run about 2 hours and cover avalanche phenomena, basic travel techniques and self-rescue equipment overviews. They are a good opportunity to learn about the hazards of winter travel that winter recreationists face when traveling in the backcountry. Suitable for skiers, hikers, snow machiners, hunters and snowboarders. 


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.