US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

 Introduction:  Good afternoon, this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Thursday, March 29th, at 1:00 p.m.. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.  Dave Medara will post a new advisory on Saturday morning

 

CHECK OUT OUR NEW GROOMING EQUIPMENT HERE.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

Please give us your observations from the field HERE.  The more observations we get, the better this forecast can be. 

  

General Conditions:

Come one, come all for some spring powder conditions in the La Sal Mountains!  Not finished skiing powder?  This afternoon and Friday will be your best bet to “get some” in Southeast Utah potentially for the rest of the year, and Medara had his best turns yesterday…On Saturday, the suns rays will be out and hot, turning this product into a different story.  Over 10” of snow has fallen at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and over 12” have fallen in Gold Basin and its still snowing.  The coral reef is covered and you can barely feel it.  All aspects at and below treeline was not effected by wind, so go up and enjoy some stellar fluff.  The winds did surface at 11,700’ for some time during the advent of the storm, but for the past 24 hours, they have been really light.  Coming to Moab for some desert fun?  Well, you better make room for the skis.   

 

Expect a snowy drive up the Geyser Pass Trailhead this morning. 4wd recommended.

 

The grooming program is all finished for this season. We are going up today to start bringing down the equipment.

 

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

This Afternoon: Periods of snow showers. High near 29. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tonight: A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Friday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 29. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 16. West northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Weather Station/ Location

Snow Depth (HS):  in./cm

New Snow (HN) in./cm

7:00 a.m. Temp (F)

Current Observations:  Wind, 48 hour snow

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): (snotel link)

30”

10”

21

Powder over crusts

Geyser Pass

 

~

N/a 

Powder

Gold Basin and South Mountain

44”

12”

n/a

Powder

Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)

N/a 

N/a 

16

Very light

 

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here) –   The snow bonded really nicely on South and West aspects.  Avalanche dragons are still out there though.  On steep, northerly aspects above tree line, this is where snow has been transported and where the sun has yet to play an important part in stability.  The new snow and snow from last Saturday’s storm is sitting on a red sand crust.  Below that pencil hard layer, near crust facets have formed which have produced fast, clean shears (Q1) on compression tests and ruschblock tests.  This shows stored potential energy, enough that avalanches on these aspects will be a concern . Expect to find a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on steep slopes above treeline on North East Through North West facing slopes. A CONSIDERABLE hazard will also be found on Easterly and Westerly facing slopes cross loaded by strong winds. Expect to find a MODERATE hazard elsewhere. Don’t let the late season fool you. This new snow load is falling on a snowpack that is quite a bit weaker than we can normally expect for this time of year. Keep your lines conservative until you get some good information to back up your decision to enter avalanche terrain. We’ll update this message Saturday morning.  One more note:  the sun came out for 3 minutes yesterday and started to produce rollerballs.  If the sun does poke out, expect this rapid warm-up to rapidly change conditions, and stability.