US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good morning, this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is St. Patrick’s Day, March 17^th, 2007 at 7:30 a.m. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

The season is coming to a close fast. Advisories will be posted on Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays, unless conditions warrant.

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To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

Please give us your observations from the field HERE. The more observations we get, the better this forecast can be.

General Conditions:

The sun continues to melt snow off the La Sal Mountains. Only a couple snowy slopes on west aspects remain in the Central Massif. Gold Basin will be your best bet for skiing. You might still be able to find some consolidated powder in there. All snow below 10,500’ is going through a melt-freeze cycle currently…only in the most sheltered spots could you find powder.

If you want to go skate or Nordic skiing, get up early at hit the groomed corridor before it starts to melt. A 6:30 a.m. start might be too early…the melt-freeze starts to lose its grip around 10:00 a.m. Due to long-wave solar radiation loss, the surface is freezing at the trailhead and continue to due so as long as temperatures drop below 40 degrees each night for a few hours.

The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead is muddy.

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Today: Sunny, with a high near 57. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 32. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 57. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 55. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Weather Station/ Location	Snow Depth (HS): in./cm	New Snow (HN) in./cm	7:00 a.m. Temp (F)	Current Observations: Wind, 48 hour snow
Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): (snotel link)	16.3”	~	36.3	Crusts, 32” at study plot
Geyser Pass	~	~	N/a	Crusts
Gold Basin and South Mountain	41”	~	n/a	Consolidated Powder/Crusts
Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)	N/a	N/a	34.6	7 mph gusts to 16 out of NW

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here) –

We are losing snow at such an alarming rate, summer could be here soon if something doesn’t change. And for the next week, we are locked into this spring-like weather. Due to lack of snow on South-West aspects, not much to report here. El Pinche and the Funnel still will have decent snow. If you are going to attempt these lines, get off them before they turn to mank and expect the lower you get, the more mank will be available to slog through.

On North through East aspects, this is where the snow is still hanging in there. The snow has not transformed completely into a spring-time pack and as a result, there are weaknesses in the mid to lower snow pack that could give you trouble. These weaknesses will be easier to propagate into avalanches from trigger points. Be careful around rock outcroppings, convex roll-overs, buried logs and trees and cliff bands. Hazard mitigation through these areas will be to ski cut potential release areas and ski one at a time. There is plenty of snow on the North face of Mt. Mellenthin for example, although the snow in the alpine still is cold and winter-like.

The avalanche danger will start at LOW on all aspects below 10,500’ and on all South through West aspects. As the day warms up, expect South through West aspects to lose cohesion and the avalanche danger will increase to MODERATE. On North through East aspects at & above tree line, the avalanche danger for today will be MODERATE. Solid travel techniques and continued observations throughout day will be your best tools.