US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good morning, this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Wednesday, March 14th, at 8:30 AM. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

The season is coming to a close fast. Advisories will be posted on Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays, unless conditions warrant.

CHECK OUT OUR NEW GROOMING EQUIPMENT HERE.

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

Please give us your observations from the field HERE. The more observations we get, the better this forecast can be.

General Conditions:

The sun has been really intense for the last three days. Temperatures have been in the upper 40’s and low 50’s at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and the temperature has not been dropping below freezing there. Last night, temperatures hovered around freezing at the Pre-Laurel Peak Weather Station. The sun has completely burned off all slopes in the alpine on South-West aspects. Only a couple of thin, snow ribbons exist on these aspects. On North through East aspects, there is snow, it is transitioning fast to a spring snow pack, and there really isn’t much up in the alpine either. Where is all our snow? Just below tree-line almost anywhere. It is time to get up early and end early…devote the rest of your desert day to other pursuits.

If you want to go skate or Nordic skiing, get up early at hit the groomed corridor before it starts to melt. Due to long-wave solar radiation loss, the surface is freezing at the trailhead and continue to due so as long as temperatures drop below 40 degrees each night for a few hours.

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Today: Partly cloudy, with a high near 50. West southwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 44. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

Weather Station/ Location	Snow Depth (HS): in./cm	New Snow (HN) in./cm	7:00 a.m. Temp (F)	Current Observations: Wind, 48 hour snow
Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): (snotel link)	20.5”	~	37.4	Crusts
Geyser Pass	45”	~	N/a	Consolidated Powder/Crusts
Gold Basin and South Mountain	45”	~	n/a	Consolidated Powder/Crusts
Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)	N/a	N/a	31.5	17 mph, gust to 23 from NW

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here) –

We are losing snow at such an alarming rate, summer could be here soon if something doesn’t change. And for the next week, we are locked into this spring-like weather. Due to lack of snow on South-West aspects, not much to report here. El Pinche and the Funnel still will have decent snow. If you are going to attempt these lines, get off them before they turn to mank and expect the lower you get, the more mank will be available to slog through.

On North through East aspects, this is where the snow is still hanging in there. The snow has not transformed completely into a spring-time pack and as a result, there are weaknesses in the mid to lower snow pack that could give you trouble. These weaknesses will be easier to propagate into avalanches from trigger points. Be careful around rock outcroppings, convex roll-overs, buried logs and trees and cliff bands. Hazard mitigation through these areas will be to ski cut potential release areas and ski one at a time.

As a result of these concerns, and the ability to manage them, the BOTTOM LINE for today will be an avalanche danger MODERATE. Solid travel techniques and continued observations throughout day will be your best tools.