US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good morning, this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Wednesday, March 7th, 2007, at 8:00 AM. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

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To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

Please give us your observations from the field HERE. The more observations we get, the better this forecast can be.

General Conditions:

For the past two days, the warm weather has been the biggest contributing factor of change up in the La Sal Mountains. At the Geyser Pass Trailhead, temperatures have been in the 40’s for at least 12 hours of the day. At the Pre-Laurel Peak Weather Station, temperatures have hovered just above the freezing point for at least six hours during each day. The new snow has settled out on North-East aspects & cool ambient temperatures at and just below tree-line have kept powder on these aspects. On South and West aspects, you can expect sun-crusts in the morning followed by wet mank and the occasional area of corn. The corn harvest is near! If we continue to get this warm weather, corn fields on south through west aspects will be ripe for the picking.

L.U.N.A. was up yesterday groomed the entire track. Wait for the sun to warm it up or you’ll be on frozen corduroy. The road is in great shape, 2WD vehicles might have a difficult time on some of the icy parts of the road.

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Today: Increasing clouds, with a high near 40. Southwest wind around 5 mph.
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. South wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.
Thursday: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Calm wind becoming west northwest between 5 and 10 mph.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Weather Station/ Location	Snow Depth (HS): in./cm	New Snow (HN) in./cm	7:00 a.m. Temp (F)	Current Observations: Wind, 48 hour snow
Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): (snotel link)	29.6”	0	27	Warming quickly today
Geyser Pass	50”	0	N/a	~
Gold Basin and South Mountain	50”	0	n/a	~
Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)	N/a	N/a	22	Winds out of the W at 2 mph

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here) –

Warm weather is helping the snow pack stabilize in most areas. Only in the alpine, on high elevation North-East aspects is this not true. It has definitely settled out the upper part of the snow pack in these areas, although the mid & lower pack has not been affected…and this is where most of the weaknesses lay in the La Sal Mountains. Spring skiing is close at hand; the anticipation for these lines to come in sometimes is brutal. If your looking for a long ski run, turn your attention to those South-West aspects above tree-line, where solar radiation has played a direct role in stability. Bruce Tremper and I had a discussion a week ago on what “Considerable” danger is. When it comes to travel, our discussion concluded that if you don’t feel comfortable putting a ski cut on a slope, then there is considerable danger. As a result, the BOTTOM LINE for today will be an AVALANCHE DANGER of CONSIDERABLE on Steep slopes in the Alpine on N-E aspects. The rest of the range will be MODERATE.