US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

 Introduction:  Good morning, this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Friday, March 2nd, 2007, at 8:00 AM. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

 

CHECK OUT OUR NEW GROOMING EQUIPMENT HERE.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

Please give us your observations from the field HERE.  The more observations we get, the better this forecast can be. 

 

  

General Conditions:

              14” of snow has fallen at the Geyser Pass Trailhead in the past seven days while 24” of snow has fallen in Gold Basin.  Cold temperatures have kept the powder pristine and today through the weekend is going to be blue sky powder days!  Before this past shot of snow on Wednesday night, a widespread wind-storm whipped through the range that sent dust to the San Juan’s and beyond.  Read on to the avalanche conditions for more information about what to expect in the back country.  It is cold this morning…5 degrees at the trailhead and colder up higher.  The winds have been very consistent out of the Northwest and are strong enough to transport snow. 

              L.U.N.A. was up on Thursday and groomed the entire track!   And the Grand County Road Department did a great job plowing the road!  What does this all mean?  Layer up and go and enjoy what is going to be the best conditions of the season to date. 

 

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Today: Snow likely with areas of blowing snow, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly sunny, with a high near 15. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Tonight: A 30 percent chance of snow before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around -5. Blustery, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.
Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 31. North northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 14. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Weather Station/ Location

Snow Depth (HS):  in./cm

New Snow (HN) in./cm

7:00 a.m. Temp (F)

Current Observations:  Wind, 48 hour snow

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): (snotel link)

42”

trace

5

Powder 14” in past 7 days

Geyser Pass

56”

trace

N/a 

Facets, powder

Gold Basin and South Mountain

56”

7”

n/a

Facets, Powder

Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)

N/a 

N/a 

cold

NW winds at 13 mph

 

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here) –

Observers yesterday had limited visibility and only reported one avalanche on the West face of Haystack.  It seems to me that with 2.0” of H20 water equivalent falling over the past 11 days, strong winds and a weak snow pack, there have been natural avalanches and the potential for human triggered avalanches is probable.  Today, I hope to have some more visibility to see what Mother Nature produced and give you a better look into the snow pack by tomorrow morning.  What I can tell you is this:  We had a very weak and shallow snow pack 11 days ago.  The height of snow on the ground has almost doubled in this time.  Snow does not like to change fast and when it does…avalanches occur.  If you’re heading out today, your weight could be the catalyst for an avalanche to propagate.  As a result the BOTTOM LINE for today is going to be an avalanche danger of CONSIDERABLE on any steep slope greater than 35 degrees on NW-N-NE-E-SE slopes.  It would be wise to put a ski cut in before committing to your line and realize that danger is not always at the top.