Introduction: Good morning, this is Max
Forgensi with the CHECK OUT OUR NEW GROOMING
EQUIPMENT HERE. To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page. Please give us your observations from
the field HERE. The more observations we get, the
better this forecast can be. |
General Conditions: 14” of snow has
fallen at the Geyser Pass Trailhead in the past seven days while 24” of snow
has fallen in Gold Basin. Cold
temperatures have kept the powder pristine and today through the weekend is
going to be blue sky powder days!
Before this past shot of snow on Wednesday night, a widespread
wind-storm whipped through the range that sent dust to the San Juan’s and
beyond. Read on to the avalanche
conditions for more information about what to expect in the back
country. It is cold this morning…5
degrees at the trailhead and colder up higher. The winds have been very consistent out of the Northwest
and are strong enough to transport snow.
L.U.N.A.
was up on Thursday and groomed the entire track! And the Grand County Road Department did a great job
plowing the road! What does this
all mean? Layer up and go and
enjoy what is going to be the best conditions of the season to date. Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’) Today:
Snow likely with
areas of blowing snow, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming
partly sunny, with a high near 15. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 15
and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. |
Weather Station/ Location |
Snow Depth (HS):
in./cm |
New Snow (HN) in./cm |
|
Current Observations:
Wind, 48 hour snow |
Geyser
Pass Trailhead (9,600’): (snotel link) |
42” |
trace |
5 |
Powder 14” in past 7 days |
|
56” |
trace |
N/a |
Facets, powder |
|
56” |
7” |
n/a |
Facets, Powder |
N/a |
N/a |
cold |
NW winds at 13
mph |
Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the
International Avalanche Danger Scale here)
– Observers yesterday had
limited visibility and only reported one avalanche on the West face of
Haystack. It seems to me that
with 2.0” of H20 water equivalent falling over the past 11 days, strong winds
and a weak snow pack, there have been natural avalanches and the potential
for human triggered avalanches is probable. Today, I hope to have some more visibility to see what
Mother Nature produced and give you a better look into the snow pack by
tomorrow morning. What I can
tell you is this: We had a very
weak and shallow snow pack 11 days ago.
The height of snow on the ground has almost doubled in this time. Snow does not like to change fast and
when it does…avalanches occur.
If you’re heading out today, your weight could be the catalyst for an
avalanche to propagate. As a
result the BOTTOM LINE
for today is going to be an avalanche danger of CONSIDERABLE
on any steep slope greater than 35 degrees on NW-N-NE-E-SE slopes. It would be wise to put a ski cut in
before committing to your line and realize that danger is not always at the
top. |