Introduction: Good morning, this is Max
Forgensi with the To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page. Please give us your observations from
the field HERE. The more observations we get, the better
this forecast can be. We’ve re-scheduled our
Level I American Institute for Avalanche Research and Education Course for
March 2-4 here in |
General Conditions: There is a change in the weather pattern! The hose (jet stream) is dialing in
the La Sal’s today and tonight and we could receive 4”-7” out of this
storm. This storm is a fast
mover…the winds have been steady out of the South through Southwest for the
past 30 hours up high. Wind
speed averages have been between 15-30 mph…enough to read on to the avalanche
conditions. Powder conditions
will reign today and tomorrow…expect warm temperatures and clear skies by
mid-week to settle things out for a bit before another storm affects the area
by Friday. L.U.N.A. was
up on Friday and groomed into Gold Basin…they will be up today to groom the
whole track. I don’t know how long it is going to last with the snow coming
down though! And mark your calendars for the
Lasaloppet on March 24th! er The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead is
not plowed today (it’s a holiday) 4wd is recommended. Expect our hero’s, the Grand County
Road Department to be up bright and early on Tuesday though! Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’) Presidents'
Day: Periods of
snow. High near 31. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts
as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow
accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. |
Weather Station/ Location |
Snow Depth (HS):
in./cm |
New Snow (HN) in./cm |
|
Current Observations:
Wind, 48 hour snow |
Geyser
Pass Trailhead (9,600’): (snotel link) |
20.1” |
2” |
28 |
Its still snowing |
|
43” |
2” |
N/a |
~ |
|
43” |
2” |
n/a |
65% of normal |
N/a |
N/a |
17.4 |
Winds out of
the SW at 22 gusts to 52 |
Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the
International Avalanche Danger Scale here)
– There is a big difference
between yesterday and today’s conditions. Although the winds started to pick up yesterday morning
for six hours and continued throughout the day and into last night, the
difference is in the Relative Humidity.
When there is a dry atmosphere and winds, snow transported by these
dry winds are sublimated into the atmosphere and active wind loading is
decreased. When the relative
humidity gets into the upper 90%, there isn’t as much room in the moist
atmosphere for the snow to be sublimated from a solid snow grain into a
gas. For the past six hours,
Relative Humidity values of 97%, new snow and transport winds are actively
loading North through NE through East aspects. Starting zones are being loaded, small cornices are
beginning to develop…ALL OVER THE WEAKEST SNOW IN THE LA SAL MOUNTAINS. There are weak layers in the bottom of our snow pack
and in the mid-layers (buried near-surface-facets) that have been waiting for
a new load to be applied to react and avalanche. Therefore, the BOTTOM LINE for today will be an
AVALANCE DANGER of CONSIDERABLE on North through East aspects at and above
tree-line. The rest of the areas
will be MODERATE. You can
expect a decent avalanche cycle out of this storm…the fragile balance between
strength and stress will be tested today. |