US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

 Introduction:  Good morning, this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Wednesday, February 14th, at 8:30 AM. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

 

CHECK OUT OUR NEW GROOMING EQUIPMENT HERE.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

Please give us your observations from the field HERE.  The more observations we get, the better this forecast can be. 

 

We’ve re-scheduled our Level I American Institute for Avalanche Research and Education Course for March 2-4 here in Moab. Cost will be 130$. SMOKIN’ deal. Give us a call at 435-636-3363 to sign up or get more info.

 

  

General Conditions:

We have received 5”-8” of snow in the past few days and skiing conditions have improved in the back country.  The first shot of snow on Sunday night was pretty dense snow, while yesterday’s squalls had lighter density snows.  Decent skiing conditions will be available in most of your favorite spots.   Observers report punchy conditions on South and West aspects; you have to ski light on these aspects not to be affected by a breakable sun-crust layer.  Your best bet for powder will be on North and East aspects. 

 

L.U.N.A. was up yesterday morning and groomed the road into Gold Basin.  Expect 2” of fluff to cover the cordoroy.  They will be back up on Friday to groom the entire course.  And mark your calendars for the Lasaloppet on March 24th!

 

The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead was plowed on Monday. 4wd is recommended today.

  

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Today: Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 11. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. West northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Weather Station/ Location

Snow Depth (HS):  in./cm

New Snow (HN) in./cm

6:00 a.m. Temp (F)

Current Observations:  Wind, 48 hour snow

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): (snotel link)

23.5”

2”

16.5

Powder!

Geyser Pass

41”

2.5”

N/a 

Powder!

Gold Basin and South Mountain

41”

2.5”

n/a

65% of normal

Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)

N/a 

N/a 

Wx Down

Wx down due to riming

 

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here) –

The La Sal mountains are being nickel and dimed by these past few storms while ALL of our neighbors are reaping much higher snowfall amounts.  As a result, we are not seeing as much avalanche activity as other forecast areas.  Our snow pack has plenty of weak layers in the mid and lower pack.  We are also yielding moderate shears in stability tests.  But what is missing in the equation is an adequate load (naturally) due to new snow and wind loading to tip the scales to failure.  Human triggered avalanches will be possible today and natural avalanches will be unlikely, therefore the Avalanche Danger for today will be MODERATE.

Use extra caution in areas of wind loading and steep slopes greater than 35 degrees on North through E aspects.  These slopes have more instabilities than the warmer South and West aspects.