US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good morning, this is Dave Medara with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Wednesday, February 7th, at 10:30am. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

CHECK OUT OUR NEW GROOMING EQUIPMENT HERE.

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

Please give us your observations from the field HERE. The more observations we get, the better this forecast can be.

We’ve re-scheduled our Level I American Institute for Avalanche Research and Education Course for March 2-4 here in Moab. Cost will be 130$. SMOKIN’ deal. Give us a call at 435-636-3363 to sign up or get more info.

General Conditions:

Warm temperatures have been the major player in the mountain snowpack of late, warming the snowpack up, melting our already meager snowpack and settling things out. This warming will have several effects on the snowpack. In areas where the sun is not heating up the snow surface settling will occur and while this will lead to increased slab formation in the short-term, it will help the long term stability of the snowpack. On SE thru W facing slopes the snow will be undergoing melt freeze cycles also increasing the long term stability of the snowpack but making things sloppy and dangerous during daylight hours, and making skiing and riding conditions lousy. There is some re-cycled powder to be found on sheltered E-NE-NW facing slopes with decent conditions for skiing and riding, open areas are more supportable than wooded areas. We are currently at 64% of normal snowpack in the La Sals, with less coverage than that above treeline. There is an increasing chance of snow towards the weekend and we really need it.

The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed.

The groomers were up on Friday skate skiing and classic cross-country skiing are groomed into Gold Basin and up to Geyser Pass.

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Today: Partly cloudy, with a high near 44. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. West southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph becoming calm. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph.
Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.
Saturday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

Weather Station/ Location	Snow Depth (HS): in./cm	New Snow (HN) in./cm	1:00 a.m. Temp (F)	Current Observations: Wind, 48 hour snow
Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): (snotel link)	19””		33	warming
Geyser Pass	32”		N/a	Facets, powder
Gold Basin and South Mountain	31”		n/a	Variable Snow, Poor Coverage
Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)	N/a	N/a	29	Light WSW

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here) –

With the warm temperatures of late things on sunny slopes in the La Sal have been getting a bit sloppy. Sustained northerly winds over the last several days have transported what snow is available to move onto sunnier slopes to be included in the daily melt freeze cycle. Winds and warming temperatures after last week’s 9 inches of snow initially caused a spike in the avalanche danger with the formation of slabs from wind transport and densification of the new snow. As time progresses the snowpack adjusts to the new loads and tension in the snowpack eases up. At this time the major avalanche danger in the La Sal and Abajo mountains appears to wet, loose snow sluffs on sunny slopes and some shady slopes below about 9000 feet. We are currently calling the avalanche danger MODERATE, meaning that in addition to wet loose avalanches, there IS the possibility of a slab avalanche release in the La Sals or Abajos right now, particularly where slopes have been cross-loaded by our sustained north winds. We’ll update this message by Friday morning, sooner if conditions change.