US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good morning, this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Thursday, February 1st, 2007 at 8:00 a.m. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

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General Conditions:

Although weather yesterday was benign in the Moab valley, we had a significant storm up in the La Sals. Storm totals vary between 6” and 8” from the Geyser Pass Trailhead to Gold Basin, with the promise of more up high. Yesterday observers boasted of light density fluff, making way for some good turns in your favorite areas. This 5% snow has been moved around a bit due to winds up high last night, although it might make it more fun in sheltered areas.

If your looking to skate, you’re going to have to wait for Friday, when L.U.N.A. will be up setting sick corduroy. Today’s best bet for fun will be in the backcountry, or classic cross-country skiing.

No report in if the road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead has been plowed. I would suspect that our hero’s, the Grand County Road Department is on it, making access for vehicles easy…although 4WD is always recommended.

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’) –

Today: A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west.
Tonight: Snow likely. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 0. Northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow before 11am. Partly cloudy, with a high near 14. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 6. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Weather Station/ Location	Snow Depth (HS): in./cm	New Snow (HN) in./cm	7:00 a.m. Temp (F)	Current Observations: Wind, 48 hour snow
Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): (snotel link)	23.5”	6”	6.6	Powder conditions
Geyser Pass	~	8+”	N/a	Powder conditions
Gold Basin and South Mountain	42”/107cm	8”	n/a	Over 1 m of snow, let the games begin!
Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)	N/a	N/a	-4.6	NNW winds 9 mph gust to 14

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here) –

We have had the ingredients of slab formation up in the La Sals last night. 8”+ of new snow to move around, 9 hours of winds greater than 15 mph out of the N-NNW last night and cold (brittle) temperatures. Observers in the N. San Juan Mountains report numerous soft slabs and sluffs last night. The interface between the new snow and old snow surface being the culprit. These near surface facets and near crust facets that were on the surface everywhere before this storm are not allowing the new snow to bond well. Compounded with cold temperatures, these instabilities might be reactive a bit longer, especially if we get more snow /wind with the next system moving in from the North.

Winds have transported snow onto leeward sides of slopes and ridges and onto S-SSE aspects. Expect cold/reactive soft slabs in the starting zones of these aspects. We have been waiting for stored potential energy to build up in the form of these soft slabs, today should be a good day to see what Mother Nature was able to kick off.

The Bottom Line for today will be an Avalanche Danger of MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on N-NE-E-SE aspects on steep slopes greater than 35 degrees.