US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

 Introduction:  Good morning, this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Wednesday, January 10th, 2007 at 12:30 p.m. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

 

CHECK OUT OUR NEW GROOMING EQUIPMENT HERE.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

Please give us your observations from the field HERE.  The more observations we get, the better this forecast can be. 

  

General Conditions:

        The La Sal Mountains are in a wait and see mode currently.  Do you want some snow?  I know I do…going to wash the car today.  There is a good recipe for a decent storm starting late Thursday night.  A very cold arctic low is currently pushing down from British Columbia while at the same time a large, wet air mass is traveling north from the Baja peninsula.  Hopefully these two powerful forces will meet just to the west of Moab and turn the hose on the La Sals.  Regardless, expect the warm temperatures of today to slowly get colder and colder until this weekend, when the artic air mass will dominate the region. 

        Skiing conditions are marginal, except on the groomed roads.  Look below tree-line for the best snow conditions currently…the alpine has been hammered by the winds. 

        The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead has been plowed, although as always, 4WD is recommended.    

 

 

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’) –

This Afternoon: Partly cloudy, with a high near 41. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 20. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.
Thursday: Areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Windy, with a south southwest wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night: Snow likely with areas of blowing snow. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Windy, with a south southwest wind between 25 and 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible..

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Weather Station/ Location

Snow Depth (HS):  in./cm

New Snow (HN) in./cm

7:00 a.m. Temp (F)

Current Observations:  Wind, 48 hour snow

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): (snotel link)

13.9”

0

12

~

Geyser Pass

~

0

N/a 

6” of fluff reported Friday 1/5

Gold Basin and South Mountain

31”

0

n/a

Thin, below normal coverage

Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)

N/a 

N/a 

25 degrees @ 12

SSW winds 25 mph gust to 34

 

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here) –

 

  We are currently calling the Avalanche danger MODERATE, meaning that human triggered avalanches are possible.  There is not much snow in the starting zones of avalanche paths in the alpine, although some sensitive (small) wind slabs have been deposited on leeward sides of slopes and ridges.  The places where you should be using extra caution is in the tracks and run-out zones of large avalanche paths and on steep, sheltered Northerly slopes below tree-line.  Avalanches will not be very large, although could take you for a very uncomfortable ride.