US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good morning, this is Dave Medara with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is WEDNSDAY, March 29th at 8am. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

CHECK OUT OUR NEW GROOMING EQUIPMENT HERE. Check out photos of a large avalanche in Dorry Canyon here.

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

Please give us your observations from the field HERE. The more observations we get, the better this forecast can be.

General Conditions:

It’s been a hurricane in the La Sals for the last 6 hours. We’ve received 3/10 of an inch of water from this storm so far equating to about 2-4 inches of new snow, but our instrumentation is struggling with the winds so an accurate measurement will have to wait until field observations can be done. It looks like the Abajo Mountains near Monticello have rec’d significantly more. The wind will be the major player out there today with conditions varying from powder to ice depending on where the wind has stripped the snow and deposited it. Forget about corn skiing until we get through this storm cycle, which hopefully will produce a little more snow with all the blow. Conditions for skiing and riding are mostly supportable out there right now but the surfaces will be highly variable. Best bet for good snow will be below treeline NE – NW facing slopes. Powder skating on the Geyser Pass Trail will be marginal with drifting. The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead was plowed before the storm but expect some drifting last night, 4wd recommended.

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’) –

Today: Periods of snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. High around 33. Very windy, with a south southwest wind between 35 and 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tonight: Periods of snow showers, mainly before 11pm. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 23. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Thursday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a high around 37. West northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 26. South southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Weather Station/ Location	Snow Depth (HS): in./cm	New Snow (HN) in./cm	7:00 a.m. Temp (F)	Current Observations: Wind, 48 hour snow
Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): (snotel link)	43”	2-4”, .3 h20	33	2-4 inches new, tough to measure w/ high winds
Geyser Pass	80” est.		N/a	Settled Powder
Gold Basin and South Mountain	58” /147 cm	2-4” new	n/a
Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)	N/a	N/a	21 degrees @ 0700	35-45 mph averages from south, 88 mph gust @ 0400, WINDY!

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here) –

As mentioned earlier, the wind will be the major player in the conditions today and this applies to avalanche as well as ski conditions. Even though we’ve received only .3 inches of water from this storm equating to about 4 inches of snow, winds tend to concentrate and accumulate snow on upper elevation slopes. North facing slopes will particularly suspect today with the major winds from the south. Last week we had a small avalanche cycle with natural slab avalanches releasing in Gold Basin with similar amounts of snow and much less wind. Today we are calling the avalanche danger CONSIDERABLE, meaning that natural avalanches are likely and human triggered avalanches are probable on steep slopes in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Likely trouble spots are steep NE – NW facing slopes above treeline, cross-loaded gully features and lower elevations areas subject to drifting and blowing snow. Be careful if you are heading into terrain steeper than 30 degrees. Look for clues indicating instability: cracking, recent avalanching, slabs of dense thick snow. If you see any of these, avoid steep terrain and be cool, wait for another day. We will update this message by Friday morning. Thanks for checking in.