US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good Morning, this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Sunday, February 12th, 2006 at 8:30 am. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

THE AMERICAN INSTITUE FOR AVALANCHE RESEARCH AND EDUCATION (AIARE) LEVEL II CLASS IS SCHEDULED FOR MARCH 3^RD-6^TH. THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF AIARE, TOM MURPHY, WILL BE ONE OF THE INSTRUCTORS AT THIS CLASS. THIS WILL BE A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO LEARN FROM THE MAN HIMSELF. CALL (435) 636-3363 FOR MORE INFORMATION AND TO SIGN UP. THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS AVAILABLE.

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

Hey backcountry users, WE NEED YOUR HELP! Click HERE to give us your observations…ANY OBSERVATIONS! Do you know how great it would be to get observations from people that travel to different parts on the mountain range than us?

General Conditions:

Today’s temperature will be milder across the mountains. It is already 10 degrees warmer than yesterday up at Geyser Pass and 15 degrees warmer than yesterday up at Pre-Laurel Peak. Today and tomorrow will be the best days go out and enjoy the mountains for this week until Friday. This warm, sunny weather will be replaced by breezy conditions on Tuesday followed by some clouds and a chance of snow on Wednesday.

The skate skiing and Nordic skiing conditions are superb right now going up to Geyser Pass and into Gold Basin. The backcountry skiing conditions are in desperate need of some improvement. You can still find some decent skiing in wind sheltered Northerly aspects below treeline. Unfortunately the rest of the range has sun crusts on South and West aspects, and above treeline the winds have played havoc with what little snow is left up there.

The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed but very slippery, people are finding themselves in ditches driving a bit too fast around switchbacks.

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. North northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 20. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.
Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 36. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 22. Breezy, with a southwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

Weather Station/ Location	Snow Depth (HS): in./cm	New Snow (HN) in./cm	6:00 a.m. Temp (F)	Current Observations: Wind, 48 hour snow
Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’):	25’’/63 cm	0”	19	20 degrees at 6:00 am
Geyser Pass	50”/130 cm	n/a	N/a	~
Gold Basin and South Mountain	42”/105cm	0”	N/a
Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)	N/a	N/a	19.9 degrees @ 7	@ 7:00 am: Winds 12 mph, g 18 from N

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here)

With this high-pressure system locked in place through Monday night, the avalanche danger has slowly dropped and a new batch of problems start to arise. We have sun crusts on our South aspects while our North aspects have been getting hammered by North wind, sublimating most if not all snow available for transport into the atmosphere. What little snow the mountains held is becoming even thinner with strong winds and sun. Although this high pressure has been good for our stability, our weak, shallow snow pack on North aspects above treeline is going to be our #1 concern. And for the future, how will new snow bond to the changing snow surfaces and how much weight will the weak snow pack structure hold before it fails? We’ll see!

The BOTTOM LINE for today will be an avalanche danger of MODERATE on North-East aspects at or above treeline with wind-loaded slopes.

Take a look at a snowpit from our tour on 01/15/06 here.