US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

 Introduction:  Good Morning this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Monday, January 16th, 2006 at 7:45 am. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

 

WE ARE STARTING TO FILL UP OUR AIARE LEVEL 1 AND LEVEL 2 CLASSES BEING HELD IN THE LA SALS THIS YEAR.  THE LEVEL 1 IS FEBRUARY 3RD-5TH (FRI-SUN), WHILE OUR LEVEL 2 IS MARCH 3RD-6TH  (FRI-MON).  CALL (435) 636-3363 FOR MORE INFORMATION AND TO SIGN UP.  EACH CLASS IS LIMITED TO 12 STUDENTS.  TUITION GOES TO THE FRIENDS OF THE MANTI-LA SAL AVALANCHE CENTER.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

 

MLAC NEWS: We have started an observer page for folks to send us their backcountry observations. Report what you see in your backcountry travels HERE. Please send us your reports on avalanches, ski conditions, road conditions, snow pit profiles etc. Thanks!

 

  

General Conditions:

Welcome to winter Moab!  The sound of plows and the first snow to hit the valley floor this season greets you this morning.  As one might expect, more has fallen up in the La Sal mountains in the past 24 hours.  2” in Moab, 12” of new snow at the Geyser Pass trailhead and more as you move up the mountains.  The Grand County Road Department has its hands full this morning.  If a plow does make it to the trailhead, it might be this afternoon.  4WD and chains are recommended today.  This is the most snow we have received in the mountains this year and it has been associated with some strong winds from the North-northeast.  Do not let the new snow and sun lure you into a false sense of security though.  There are plenty of ground hazards lurking under and just above the snow surface in your favorite skiing spots.  It is time to put your avalanche eyes on so read on to the avalanche conditions.  Nordic and Skate skiing conditions will be pleasant today…expect a fun workout!

 

 Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

          M.L.King Day: Areas of snow before noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 18. North northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of   precipitation is 30%.  Wind chill values above treeline will be 0- -10F degrees today. 
          Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 10. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.
          Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 33. Northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.
          Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 12. Breezy, with a west wind between 10 and 20 mph.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Weather Station/ Location

Snow Depth (HS):  in./cm

New Snow (HN) in./cm

6:00 a.m. Temp (F)

Current Observations:  Wind, 48 hour snow

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’):

24+” 

12” 

11

12” 

Geyser Pass

 N/a

12+”

N/a 

N/a 

Gold Basin and South Mountain

32+” 

12+” 

N/a 

12+” 

Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)

N/a 

N/a 

-1

North-northeast 16-30 mph 

 

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here)

            The La Sal mountain range has three major factors that are increasing the avalanche danger.  #1:  A very weak snowpack.  Observations yesterday showed weak moderate shears on Northerly aspects below treeline.  This snow pack structure will not be able to take a large new stress.  #2 12” plus of snow is a very large new stress especially when compounding it with #3 strong winds predominantly out of the NNE for the past 7 hours.  What does this mean?  Avalanche will be occurring naturally and could be likely triggered by a skier or snowmobiler.  By yesterday evening, the La Sals had received 0.5” of water weight with an additional 0.2” of H20 weight last night for a total of 0.7”.  That’s a big load to be sitting on top of such a weak snow pack.  The BOTTOM LINE for today is going to be an avalanche danger of HIGH on steep wind loaded slopes at all elevations on NW-N-NE-E slopes.  The rest of the range will be MODERATE.  South and westerly aspects had little to no snow on them before this event.  Today will be a great day to observe avalanches from a distance and ski conservatively.  See you up there. 

            To view the snowpit observation from yesterday, click this link.