US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

 Introduction:  Good Morning this is Dave Medara with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Saturday, January 14th, 2006 at 8:30 am. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

 

WE ARE STARTING TO FILL UP OUR AIARE LEVEL 1 AND LEVEL 2 CLASSES BEING HELD IN THE LA SALS THIS YEAR.  THE LEVEL 1 IS FEBRUARY 3RD-5TH (FRI-SUN), WHILE OUR LEVEL 2 IS MARCH 3RD-6TH  (FRI-MON).  CALL (435) 636-3363 FOR MORE INFORMATION AND TO SIGN UP.  EACH CLASS IS LIMITED TO 12 STUDENTS.  TUITION GOES TO THE FRIENDS OF THE MANTI-LA SAL AVALANCHE CENTER.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

 

MLAC NEWS: We have started an observer page for folks to send us their backcountry observations. Report what you see in your backcountry travels HERE. Please send us your reports on avalanches, ski conditions, road conditions, snow pit profiles etc. Thanks!

 

  

General Conditions:

Winds are up and out of the south already ahead of the next storm that is SUPPOSED to move into our area. Being a bit of a skeptic these days, it’s hard to get really excited about this system, BUT, the NWS and the two model runs I’ve looked strongly support a decent sized storm coming into our area with the best chance for precip coming Sunday and into Sunday night. The system looks good and the mountains really need it. The overall conditions up there for skiing, snow machining, and snowboarding are really poor off the main roads and trails right now. This new snow, in any amount, will help improve the conditions in the La Sals. Skate skiing and cross-country conditions are good on the Geyser Pass road at the moment but expect that to change. Also expect a BIG change in the avalanche danger out there with this storm, so read on or listen on.

Currently, the Geyser Pass road and the Loop Road are passable by 2WD vehicle although the Geyser Road is slippery

 

 Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

     Today: A 20 percent chance of snow after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high around 38. Breezy, with a south southwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
     Tonight: A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Windy, with a south southwest wind between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts                       as high as 40 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

     Sunday: Periods of snow. High around 29. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
     Sunday Night: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 8. Wind chill values between -10 and zero. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Weather Station/ Location

Snow Depth (HS):  in./cm

New Snow (HN) in./cm

6:00 a.m. Temp (F)

Current Observations:  Wind, 48 hour snow

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’):

10.5” 

0” 

38

0” 

Geyser Pass

 N/a

0”

N/a 

0” 

Gold Basin and South Mountain

24” 

0” 

N/a 

0” 

Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)

N/a 

N/a 

 25

Southerly at 25-35 mph. 

 

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here)

            The Bottom Line is that while avalanche dangers are very limited at this time, we are hesitant to lower the danger rating due to the avalanche activity that continues in our sister range (the San Juans in SW Colorado). We are calling the avalanche danger MODERATE on all slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Most of the snow we have is on our E-N-NW facing aspects, and our prevailing S winds pile the snow up on this aspect. Strong south winds at the moment will continue the trend. The change has begun, however, and we can expect the avalanche danger to spike dramatically if the forecast snowfall amounts actually arrive. The La Sal snowpack is very weak, rotten and layered. What this means is that we can expect a significant avalanche cycle when the new snow piles up. We will be monitoring the situation closely and keep you updated as the storm unfolds.