US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction:  Good morning!  This is Dave Medara with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Wednesday, December 28th at 8:00 am. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

 

WE ARE STARTING TO FILL UP OUR AIARE LEVEL 1 AND LEVEL 2 CLASSES BEING HELD IN THE LA SALS THIS YEAR.  THE LEVEL 1 IS FEBRUARY 3RD-5TH (FRI-SUN), WHILE OUR LEVEL 2 IS MARCH 3RD-6TH  (FRI-MON).  CALL (435) 636-3363 FOR MORE INFORMATION AND TO SIGN UP.  EACH CLASS IS LIMITED TO 12 STUDENTS.  TUITION GOES DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE FRIENDS OF THE MANTI-LA SAL AVALANCHE CENTER.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

 

General Conditions:

A little less change than we would hope for in the mountains of SE Utah 2-4" of snow fell in the La Sals, Not enough to make the skiing great (trust me on that one) or cover all the ground hazard, but better than a poke in the eye, which you still might get if you head up into the La Sals looking for turns. The Abajos received even less from this storm. We are just going to have to wait for some more snow before we get adequate cover. More snow is forecast for tomorrow

 

The Geyser pass road is unplowed but passable with 4WD or chains. Not much drifting has occurred. 

We are currently at around 70% percent of normal precipitation for the winter so far according to the Natural Recourses Conservation Service. I think we’re a little lighter than that…but in the Desert “normal” is a very wide range.

 

Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’):  7.5” at the SNOTEL.  14” at the GPTH Snowstake, 3” new. 21 degrees at the Geyser Pass trailhead at 7:00 a.m.  32 degrees in Moab.

 

Gold Basin and South Mountain:  21” of settled snow on the ground, 3” new.

 

Pre-Laurel Peak Weather Station (11,705’):  Still Struggling with the weather station. Had contact, lost contact. The drama continues with new hardware.

 

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Calm wind becoming south southwest between 5 and 10 mph.
Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Breezy, with a southwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Thursday: Snow likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a north northwest wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

 

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here)

 

New snow loads applied to the weak underlying snow in the La Sals are going to be unstable. There just wasn’t enough snow in this last storm to really tip the scales. The relatively small amounts of new snow are going to keep the avalanche activity down to a MODERATE level below treeline. Above treeline and in any other areas that could be loaded by last night’s west and southwest winds, the avalanche danger rating for today will be CONSIDERABLE, meaning that human triggered avalanches are possible if you venture out into terrain steeper than 35 degrees, especially E_NE_NW facing slopes. We will need to pay close attention to what happens with the next forecasted snowfall.  The old snow in the La Sals is very weak and as little as 6-8 inches of snow and a bit of wind could lead us into a substantial avalanche cycle.