US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction:  Good morning!  This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Sunday, December 18th at 8:30 a.m. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

 

WE ARE STARTING TO FILL UP OUR AIARE LEVEL 1 AND LEVEL 2 CLASSES BEING HELD IN THE LA SALS THIS YEAR.  THE LEVEL 1 IS FEBRUARY 3RD-5TH (FRI-SUN), WHILE OUR LEVEL 2 IS MARCH 3RD-6TH  (FRI-MON).  CALL (435) 636-3363 FOR MORE INFORMATION AND TO SIGN UP.  EACH CLASS IS LIMITED TO 12 STUDENTS.  TUITION GOES DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE FRIENDS OF THE MANTI-LA SAL AVALANCHE CENTER.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

 

General Conditions:

            Precipitation is pushing in from the west and it appears that today and Monday might be our best bet for precipitation before a high pressure system develops over the region before the Christmas weekend.  It appears to be another good day to do some ice skating, although there is enough snow to get up and do some Skate/Nordic Skiing.  Backcountry skiing is  currently limited to only a couple of select spots up in the La Sals.  Plenty of ground hazards exist to trip you up, so be careful!  The Grand County Road Department did plow the road, although it is still icy and snow packed in spots.  4WD and chains are recommended. 

 

Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’):  5.2” at the SNOTEL.  22 degrees at the trailhead at 7:00 a.m. 

Gold Basin and South Mountain:  20” of settled snow on the ground. 

Pre-Laurel Peak Weather Station (11,705’):  Friday was an exciting day for the Weather Station.  We have all the equipment in place and we made CONTACT!  There are a few bugs to be worked out before we have a reliable link.  Baby steps on this one!

 

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Today: Areas of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 26. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tonight: A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. West southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Monday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 29. West northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

 

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here)

                They say people can create a collective consciousness to change anything in this world.  Anyone who hasn’t burned a ski or washed your car or haven’t stayed up watching old ski movies should do so in short order.  Our best chance for precipitation is today and Monday…lets hope for the best!  As I have been saying for too long, North aspects at and just below tree-line is where you will find our weakest snowpack.  Observers have pointed out that there is a 8-10” slab sitting on some of this sugar snow; i.e. depth hoar, facets…which in turn has no strength and can avalanche to the ground if an unsuspecting backcountry skier places his turn or ski cut the wrong (or right) place to initiate this failure.  Any avalanches will use trees, rocks, logs and humans to connect the dots and make a crown line.  The BOTTOM LINE in these areas is going to be MODERATE.  The rest of the range is going to have a hazard rating of LOW.