US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good morning! This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Sunday, December 11th at 9:00 a.m. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

General Conditions:

We are still in an inversion here in the Moab Valley. Currently it is 8 degrees up at the Canyonlands Airport while up at the Geyser Pass Trailhead it is 23 degrees out. The mountains will warm faster than the valley today. Our forecast is bleak when it comes to new snow, although there is enough out in the La Sals to enjoy cross-country skiing and limited backcountry skiing. There is some snow to make turns, the tough part is the egress back to the trailheads. Plenty of ground hazards exist to trip you up, so be careful! The Grand County Road Department did plow the road, although it is still icy and snow packed in spots. 4WD and chains are recommended.

Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): 5.80” at the SNOTEL. 23 degrees at the trailhead at 7:00 a.m.

Gold Basin and South Mountain: 20” of settled snow on the ground.

Pre-Laurel Peak Weather Station (11,705’): A hearty crew of volunteers went up Thursday and was able to install all of the equipment at the weather station. We are waiting for some cables to be delivered so we can hook up the base station, and then we are good to go!

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Calm wind.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 39. Southwest wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here)

Our biggest concern for today and into the foreseeable future will be those steep slopes at or above treeline on E-NW aspects. This is where that weak, rotten, faceted snow has been hiding out through weeks of seemingly unending high pressure. This depth-hoar can and most definitely will fail once there is a significant load deposited on top of them, or if a skier finds a weak trap door in the pack. On Thursday, the first avalanche was observed. It started right at tree-line, on a convexity and failed on a North aspect to the ground. SS-N-R2-D2-G. The Bottom line for today is going to be MODERATE on those steep, upper elevation Northerly aspects, where there is a terrain feature, like a convexity, and/or shallow areas in the snow pack that can transmit a skiers weight into the weak sugar snow on the ground. Any avalanche activity can be as large as the terrain features shape, and be small avalanches that can still be dangerous to anyone caught in them. Rocks, cliffs and trees hurt! The rest of the range will be LOW.