Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest               

Introduction:  Good morning!  This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Thursday, February 17th, 2005 at 7:30 am.  This bulletin is sponsored in part by Western Spirit, offering cycling adventures in Moab and beyond, proud sponsors of the Friends of the Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center.  This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

 

General Conditions:

The snow keeps on coming into the La Sal Mountains and it continues to roll all the way through the weekend.  There is 3” of snow at the trailhead and up to 5” up in Gold Basin and at Geyser Pass.  This new snow will definitely help make the snow conditions softer, there is a breakable rain crust that is now buried under this snow and can be found up to 10,600’.  Expect to find powder conditions below tree line and a mix of powder and wind effected conditions at or above tree line.

The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead is in great shape, yesterday the Grand County Roads Department worked on it for better half of the day.  4WD is recommended and chains might help as well. 

 

Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’):  44” at the SNOTEL, 51” at the stake, it is 20 degrees at the TH at 6:00 am. 

Pre-Laurel Peak (11,700’):  Back to the drawing board on this one, hopefully by Monday evening we’ll have read-outs.   

Gold Basin and South Mountain:  Around 80” to 85” of settled snow on the ground. 

 

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Welcome back to winter!  Cold temperatures, strong winds and poor visibility will be on tap for the next four days.    

Thursday:  Partly cloudy.  High near 33.  Winds will be out of the West at 5 mph, then backing to the South.  Gusts could be as high as 20 mph. 

Thursday night:  20% chance of snow past midnight.  Mostly cloudy with a low near 11 degrees.  Winds will be out of the Southwest at 5-10 mph, gusting to 20.

Friday:  50% chance of snow.  Mostly cloudy with a high near 35.  Wind chill values will be between –2 and 8 degrees.  Winds will be out of the South-Southwest at 10-15 mph, gusting to 30.  1-2 inches of precipitation is expected.     

 

Avalanche Conditions:

The new snow we have received in the past 48 hours came down with calm winds, and have covered some signs that might give clues to what slopes are unstable.  Before the snow started to fly, the winds were strong and out of the West-Southwest and there was plenty of snow to transport at and above tree-line.  North thru East slopes would have been loaded from these winds, and Mother Nature still has yet to produce any significant avalanches.  There are some serious instabilities out in the mountains today that can and will be triggered by a back country skier.  Performing ski tests on the sides of the road produced some good cracking yesterday.  These instabilities are between the old/new snow interface and in the density differences from this past weekends storm.    What concerns me the most today are going to be trigger points out in the mountains.  Steep convex rollovers, shallow rock outcroppings where a skiers weight can transfer energy deeper into the snow pack, trees and tender cornices are my greatest concern.  I believe the snow pack is under a precarious balance right now, all it is looking for is some added stress (a.k.a. you) to come along to tip the scales to a failure. 

The Bottom Line for today:  An avalanche danger of CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes greater than 35 degrees on all N-E aspects at all elevations. For the rest of the La Sal’s, I am going to rate the avalanche danger at MODERATE.     

 

 

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

There was a Nordic track set to Geyser Pass yesterday afternoon; a mix of extra blue and violet might be the call for today’s conditions.