Introduction: Good
morning! This is Max Forgensi with the
USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather
advisory. Today is Thursday, February 17th,
2005 at 7:30 am. This bulletin is
sponsored in part by Western Spirit,
offering cycling adventures in Moab and beyond, proud sponsors of the Friends
of the Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center.
This advisory will expire in 24 hours.
To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.
General Conditions:
The snow keeps on coming into the La Sal Mountains and it
continues to roll all the way through the weekend. There is 3” of snow at the trailhead and up to 5” up in Gold
Basin and at Geyser Pass. This new snow
will definitely help make the snow conditions softer, there is a breakable rain
crust that is now buried under this snow and can be found up to 10,600’. Expect to find powder conditions below tree
line and a mix of powder and wind effected conditions at or above tree line.
The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead is in great shape, yesterday
the Grand County Roads Department worked on it for better half of the day. 4WD is recommended and chains might help as
well.
Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)
Geyser Pass
Trailhead (9,600’): 44” at the
SNOTEL, 51” at the stake, it is 20 degrees at the TH at 6:00 am.
Pre-Laurel
Peak (11,700’): Back to the drawing
board on this one, hopefully by Monday evening we’ll have read-outs.
Gold Basin and South Mountain:
Around 80” to 85” of settled snow on the ground.
Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)
Welcome
back to winter! Cold temperatures,
strong winds and poor visibility will be on tap for the next four days.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High near 33. Winds will be out of the West at 5 mph, then backing to the
South. Gusts could be as high as 20
mph.
Thursday night: 20% chance of snow past
midnight. Mostly cloudy with a low near
11 degrees. Winds will be out of the
Southwest at 5-10 mph, gusting to 20.
Friday: 50% chance of snow. Mostly cloudy with a high near 35. Wind chill values will be between –2 and 8
degrees. Winds will be out of the South-Southwest
at 10-15 mph, gusting to 30. 1-2 inches
of precipitation is expected.
Avalanche Conditions:
The
new snow we have received in the past 48 hours came down with calm winds, and
have covered some signs that might give clues to what slopes are unstable. Before the snow started to fly, the winds
were strong and out of the West-Southwest and there was plenty of snow to
transport at and above tree-line. North
thru East slopes would have been loaded from these winds, and Mother Nature
still has yet to produce any significant avalanches. There are some serious instabilities out in the mountains today
that can and will be triggered by a back country skier. Performing ski tests on the sides of the
road produced some good cracking yesterday.
These instabilities are between the old/new snow interface and in the
density differences from this past weekends storm. What concerns me the most today are going to be trigger points
out in the mountains. Steep convex
rollovers, shallow rock outcroppings where a skiers weight can transfer energy
deeper into the snow pack, trees and tender cornices are my greatest
concern. I believe the snow pack is
under a precarious balance right now, all it is looking for is some added
stress (a.k.a. you) to come along to tip the scales to a failure.
The Bottom Line for today:
An avalanche danger of CONSIDERABLE
on steep slopes greater than 35 degrees on all N-E aspects at all elevations. For
the rest of the La Sal’s, I am going to rate the avalanche danger at MODERATE.
Nordic and Skate Skiing:
There
was a Nordic track set to Geyser Pass yesterday afternoon; a mix of extra blue
and violet might be the call for today’s conditions.