Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest               

Introduction:  Good morning!  This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Monday, February 14th, 2005 at 8:30 am.  This bulletin is sponsored in part by Western Spirit, offering cycling adventures in Moab and beyond, proud sponsors of the Friends of the Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center.  This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

 

General Conditions:

Another band of precipitation is threatening the La Sal Mountains today and for the better part of the work week.  Today’s overcast skies will greet backcountry enthusiasts in the mountains.  We have a medley of conditions out in the mountains today; rain crusts on all aspects below 10,600’, heavy powder up to tree line, and wind effected snow above tree line.    The road to the trailhead is in decent shape, although it has yet to be plowed, the lack of significant snowfall makes it so the road isn’t very messy. 

 

Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’):  42” at the SNOTEL, 49” at the stake, it is 30 degrees at the TH at 6:00 am. 

Pre-Laurel Peak (11,700’):  Back to the drawing board on this one, hopefully by Monday evening we’ll have read-outs.   

Gold Basin and South Mountain:  Around 75” to 85” of settled snow on the ground. 

 

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

There is a complex weather system in the region, the heavy precipitation will most likely fall to the North of us. 

Monday:  Snow likely, mainly after noon.  Mostly cloudy, with a high temperature near 35 degrees.  Winds will be out of the Westsouthwest at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.  Less than an inch of snow is expected.       
Monday night:  30% chance of precipitation.  Mostly cloudy, with a low near 23 degrees.  Winds will be out of the Westsouthwest at 15-20 mph, increasing to 25-30 mph, with gusts as high as 40. 

Tuesday:  Snow likely.  High near 30.  Winds will be out of the Westnorthwest at 15-20 mph, gusting to 35.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.  1-3” expected.    

 

Avalanche Conditions:

Heavy snow sitting on top of light snow….hmmm, makes you think, doesn’t it?  The new snow was so moist, you could make a snowball out of it very easily.  Mother Nature gave no obvious clues of instability yesterday, there were no observations of natural avalanche activity.   What concerns me the most today are going to be trigger points out in the mountains.  Steep convex rollovers, shallow rock outcroppings where a skiers weight can transfer energy deeper into the snow pack, trees and tender cornices are my greatest concern.  I believe the snow pack is under a precarious balance right now, all it is looking for is some added stress (a.k.a. you) to come along to tip the scales to a failure.  Yesterday there was a skier triggered avalanche below tree line on a Northerly aspect.  It was in the trees, and the trigger point was some small trees and a buried rock.  With strong winds in the forecast, the snow pack has the chance of becoming even more tender, so keep your slope angles down. 

The Bottom Line for today:  An avalanche danger of CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes on all aspects and elevations, where there are poor anchors and the trigger points mentioned above are present.  I would be suspect of areas like the Corkscrew Glades, Tele Gold and Horse Creek.  For the rest of the La Sal’s, I am going to rate the avalanche danger at MODERATE.     

 

 

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

Snowmobile traffic to Geyser Pass makes it a great day to get your skate skiing on, a Nordic Track is set to Gold Basin.