Introduction: Good
morning! This is Evan Stevens with
the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather
advisory. Today is Sunday, February
6th, 2005 at 7:30 am.
This bulletin is sponsored in part by Canyon Voyages, Moab’s finest river
running and retail store, proud sponsors of the Friends of the Manti-La Sal
Avalanche Center. This advisory
will expire in 24 hours.
To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.
General Conditions:
A WINTER STORM WATCH is in effect until Tuesday morning with the
potential for 10 to 20” of new snow and strong SW winds…so today will be a transitional
day, with conditions changing as the clock ticks away. For the early part of the day you can
still expect to find some decent recrystalized powder on sheltered and shady
aspects, but the strong winds will start to get everywhere. Wind and sun crusts can still be found
everywhere else. The roads are
plowed and 4WD is recommended of course.
Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)
Geyser
Pass Trailhead (9,600’): 34”
at the SNOTEL site with a temperature of 19 degrees at 6:00 am.
Pre-Laurel
Peak (11,700’): The last 6
hours of winds are averaging 5-10mph from the NE with gusts up to the high teens.
Gold Basin and South Mountain:
Around 65” to 75” of settled snow on the ground.
Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)
Sunny, clear and dry until later on in the weekend…more details as
the storm track solidifies, but it looks like a shot of 6-12” starting Sunday
evening.
Today:
A 20 percent chance
of snow showers after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 30. Breezy, with a
southwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could
gust as high as 35 mph.
Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low
around 16. Wind chill values between -1 and 9. Breezy, with a southwest wind
between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is
70%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Monday: Periods of snow. High near 28. Wind chill values between -2 and
8. Windy, with a west southwest wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high
as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9
inches possible.
Avalanche Conditions:
This is your last chance to map out the areas of weak snow
in the range before it starts to get buried later on this evening. Our picture as it stands now is some
weak faceted snow on the surface of the sheltered and shady aspects-but with
strong winds from the SW coming before and during the storm expect to see some
new snow drifting in the period of time from noon today until the storm ends. Precipitation won’t start until after
midnight tonight, so the only avalanche concern today will be the possibility of
some shallow new slabs on the leeward aspects-but once again there isn’t much
snow available for transport yet. So
for today the avalanche danger remains at LOW with the
possibility of increasing to MODERATE on steep
leeward aspects as the winds pick up and some snow begins to fall. It will be an interesting 24-48 hour
period so get ready!
Nordic and Skate Skiing:
Excellent
conditions on packed out trails…the word is that the Abajos have had some great
conditions as well so get out and explore.