Introduction: Good
morning! This is Max Forgensi with the
USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather
advisory. Today is Saturday, January 29th,
2005 at 7:15 am. This bulletin is
sponsored in part by Canyon Voyages,
Moab’s finest river running and retail store, proud sponsors of the Friends of
the Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center. This
advisory will expire in 24 hours and will be updated Sunday morning.
To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.
General Conditions:
Another great day to go up and enjoy the La Sals. Yesterday at the trailhead the temperatures
only peaked above freezing for one hour, and clouds started to roll into the
mountains in the 2nd half of the morning. The wind has been light for the past couple of days, so the
31/2-7” of snow that fell a couple of days ago is still going to be in good
shape. On South-West aspects the snow
might have settled a bit, but the sun didn’t have much chance to effect it
yesterday. You still might be able to
find some creamy snow on top of a supportable sun crust. On those North aspects, the snow is fast and
light. The road to Geyser Pass is
plowed, although it could have some icy patches down low.
Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)
Geyser
Pass Trailhead (9,600’): 34.8” at
the SNOTEL site with a temperature of 18.3 degrees at 5:00 am.
Pre-Laurel
Peak (11,700’): Our efforts in
fixing the Weather station yesterday proved to be fruitless, it might be time
to call in the big guns.
Gold Basin and South Mountain:
Around 65” to 75” of settled snow on the ground.
Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)
A moist and unstable air mass will remain in place as a weakening
storm system will slowly move over the region.
A ridge of high pressure will develop for the beginning of next
week.
Today: Scattered snow
showers. Mostly cloudy, high near
28. Winds will be out of the South at 5
mph, gusting to 20. Chance of
precipitation is 50%. Less than an inch
of snow is expected.
Tonight: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, low near 15. Winds will be out of the SSE at 5-10 mph,
gusting to 20. Chance of precipitation
is 60%. Up to 2-4” could fall.
Sunday: 30% chance of
snow. Mostly cloudy, high near 28. Winds will be out of the ENE at 15 mph,
gusting to 25.
Avalanche Conditions:
Abajo Mountains:
With 12” of heavy snow falling over the past 72 hours and a base of 70” at Camp Jackson, the benign conditions of the past week has dramatically changed. The snow is starting to stabilize better than yesterday. The trade winds have been out of the Southwest, and have been strong enough to transport snow onto those North-East aspects. The old snow surface on these aspects have been creating near surface facets, due to the large daily temperature swings. The heavy new snow that has fallen will not bond well to this weak layer, and unstable conditions might exist on these North-East facing slopes. Your safest bet will be to recreate on South-West aspects, where the new snow has bonded better to the old sun crust. The Bottom Line for the Abajos will be an avalanche danger of MODERATE on steep, wind-loaded slopes greater than 35 degrees on North-East aspects.
La Sal Mountains:
Observations once again pointed to our main concern being on North-East
aspects. Before this last storm, the
past two weeks of high pressure had changed the snow surface conditions from
powder to what are called near-surface-facets; a weak, non-cohesive layer that
new snow or wind slabs bond poorly to. Now
buried underneath the new snow, shooting cracks, whoomping and small avalanches
occurred on these aspects in the past 48 hours. There were some pockets of wind/sun protected slopes that had a
buried surface hoar layer as well. The
higher in elevation you go, the more new snow sits on these weak layers, aka
more stress. Currently I am going to
rate the avalanche danger at MODERATE
on wind effected slopes on N-E
aspects greater than 35 degrees at or above tree line. Be weary of those trigger points, such as
rock outcroppings and shallow snow deposits on these aspects, where your
pressure can transfer your energy easier into the snow pack! For the rest of the areas, I am going to
rate the avalanche danger at LOW.
Nordic and Skate Skiing:
Fresh
snow and temperatures in the low 30’s will mean some fun skiing!