Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest               

Introduction:  Good morning!  This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Saturday, January 29th, 2005 at 7:15 am.  This bulletin is sponsored in part by Canyon Voyages, Moab’s finest river running and retail store, proud sponsors of the Friends of the Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center.  This advisory will expire in 24 hours and will be updated Sunday morning. 

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

 

General Conditions:

Another great day to go up and enjoy the La Sals.  Yesterday at the trailhead the temperatures only peaked above freezing for one hour, and clouds started to roll into the mountains in the 2nd half of the morning.  The wind has been light for the past couple of days, so the 31/2-7” of snow that fell a couple of days ago is still going to be in good shape.  On South-West aspects the snow might have settled a bit, but the sun didn’t have much chance to effect it yesterday.  You still might be able to find some creamy snow on top of a supportable sun crust.  On those North aspects, the snow is fast and light.  The road to Geyser Pass is plowed, although it could have some icy patches down low. 

 

Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’):  34.8” at the SNOTEL site with a temperature of 18.3 degrees at 5:00 am. 

Pre-Laurel Peak (11,700’):  Our efforts in fixing the Weather station yesterday proved to be fruitless, it might be time to call in the big guns. 

Gold Basin and South Mountain:  Around 65” to 75” of settled snow on the ground. 

 

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

A moist and unstable air mass will remain in place as a weakening storm system will slowly move over the region.  A ridge of high pressure will develop for the beginning of next week. 

Today:  Scattered snow showers.  Mostly cloudy, high near 28.  Winds will be out of the South at 5 mph, gusting to 20.  Chance of precipitation is 50%.  Less than an inch of snow is expected.

Tonight:  Snow likely.  Mostly cloudy, low near 15.  Winds will be out of the SSE at 5-10 mph, gusting to 20.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.  Up to 2-4” could fall.

Sunday:  30% chance of snow.  Mostly cloudy, high near 28.  Winds will be out of the ENE at 15 mph, gusting to 25. 

Avalanche Conditions:

 

Abajo Mountains: 

            With 12” of heavy snow falling over the past 72 hours and a base of 70” at Camp Jackson, the benign conditions of the past week has dramatically changed.  The snow is starting to stabilize better than yesterday.  The trade winds have been out of the Southwest, and have been strong enough to transport snow onto those North-East aspects.  The old snow surface on these aspects have been creating near surface facets, due to the large daily temperature swings.  The heavy new snow that has fallen will not bond well to this weak layer, and unstable conditions might exist on these North-East facing slopes.  Your safest bet will be to recreate on South-West aspects, where the new snow has bonded better to the old sun crust.  The Bottom Line for the Abajos will be an avalanche danger of MODERATE on steep, wind-loaded slopes greater than 35 degrees on North-East aspects. 

           

La Sal Mountains: 

  Observations once again pointed to our main concern being on North-East aspects.  Before this last storm, the past two weeks of high pressure had changed the snow surface conditions from powder to what are called near-surface-facets; a weak, non-cohesive layer that new snow or wind slabs bond poorly to.  Now buried underneath the new snow, shooting cracks, whoomping and small avalanches occurred on these aspects in the past 48 hours.  There were some pockets of wind/sun protected slopes that had a buried surface hoar layer as well.  The higher in elevation you go, the more new snow sits on these weak layers, aka more stress.  Currently I am going to rate the avalanche danger at MODERATE  on wind effected slopes on N-E aspects greater than 35 degrees at or above tree line.  Be weary of those trigger points, such as rock outcroppings and shallow snow deposits on these aspects, where your pressure can transfer your energy easier into the snow pack!  For the rest of the areas, I am going to rate the avalanche danger at LOW. 

 

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

Fresh snow and temperatures in the low 30’s will mean some fun skiing!