Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest               

Introduction:  Good morning!  This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Friday, January 28th, 2005 at 7:30 am.  This bulletin is sponsored in part by Canyon Voyages, Moab’s finest river running and retail store, proud sponsors of the Friends of the Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center.  This advisory will expire in 24 hours and will be updated Saturday morning. 

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

 

General Conditions:

It is amazing how sometimes a little bit of snow can make a lot of difference.  For the past 48 hours, Moab has been receiving an unprecedented amount of rain for January and the mountains have only been able to squeeze out a little snow from the storm.  We have received 3.5-7” of snow up in the La Sals, with more snow piling up in localized areas.  The snow conditions are incredible!  What we thought was going to be dust on crust on those South through West aspects is actually a creamy powder that on only hard turns you can feel the supportable (6+”) crust underneath.  The North-East aspects is holding the light density powder.  Below tree line there has been little wind effect, while at or above treeline the wind has transported snow onto the North-East aspects, so read on to the avalanche danger. 

The road to Geyser Pass has yet to be plowed, so icy and snow packed areas will exist.  The Road crew should be up there sometime in the later a.m. 

  

Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’):  34.8” at the SNOTEL site with a temperature of 27.5 degrees at 5:00 am. 

Pre-Laurel Peak (11,700’):  Our efforts in fixing the Weather station yesterday proved to be fruitless, it might be time to call in the big guns. 

Gold Basin and South Mountain:  Around 65” to 70” of settled snow on the ground. 

 

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

A moist and unstable air mass will remain in place as a weakening storm system will slowly move over the region.  A ridge of high pressure will develop for the beginning of next week. 

Today:  Snow likely before noon.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28.  Winds will be out of the West at 5-10 mph, gusting to 20.  60% chance of snow.  Less than 2” of snow is possible.

Tonight:  30% chance of snow past midnight.  Mostly cloudy, low near 14.  Winds will be out of the Southwest at 5 mph.

Saturday:  50% chance of snow showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27.  Winds will be our of the SSE at 5 mph.  1-2” possible. 

 

Avalanche Conditions:

 

Abajo Mountains: 

            With 12” of heavy snow falling over the past 48 hours and a base of 70” at Camp Jackson, the benign conditions of the past week has dramatically changed.  The trade winds have been out of the Southwest, and have been strong enough to transport snow onto those North-East aspects.  The old snow surface on these aspects have been creating near surface facets, due to the large daily temperature swings.  The heavy new snow that has fallen will not bond well to this weak layer, and unstable conditions might exist on these North-East facing slopes.  Your safest bet will be to recreate on South-West aspects, where the new snow has bonded better to the old sun crust.  The Bottom Line for the Abajos will be an avalanche danger of CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind-loaded slopes greater than 35 degrees on North-East aspects. 

           

La Sal Mountains: 

  Observations yesterday pointed to our main concern being on North-East aspects.  The past two weeks of high pressure has changed the surface conditions from powder to what are called near-surface-facets; a weak, non-cohesive layer that new snow or wind slabs bond poorly to.  Shooting cracks, whoomping and small avalanches occurred on these aspects.  The higher in elevation you go, the deeper the snow is on these aspects and the snow pack is becoming more unstable.  Currently I am going to rate the avalanche danger at MODERATE  with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on wind effected slopes on N-E aspects greater than 35 degrees.  Be weary of those trigger points, such as rock outcroppings and shallow snow deposits on these aspects, where your pressure can transfer your energy easier into the snow pack!  For the rest of the areas, I am going to rate the avalanche danger at LOW. 

 

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

Fresh snow and temperatures in the low 30’s will mean some fun skiing!