Introduction: Good
morning! This is Max Forgensi with the
USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather
advisory. Today is Friday, January 28th,
2005 at 7:30 am. This bulletin is
sponsored in part by Canyon Voyages,
Moab’s finest river running and retail store, proud sponsors of the Friends of
the Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center. This
advisory will expire in 24 hours and will be updated Saturday morning.
To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.
General Conditions:
It is amazing how sometimes a little bit of snow can make a lot of
difference. For the past 48 hours, Moab
has been receiving an unprecedented amount of rain for January and the
mountains have only been able to squeeze out a little snow from the storm. We have received 3.5-7” of snow up in the La
Sals, with more snow piling up in localized areas. The snow conditions are incredible! What we thought was going to be dust on crust on those South through
West aspects is actually a creamy powder that on only hard turns you can feel
the supportable (6+”) crust underneath.
The North-East aspects is holding the light density powder. Below tree line there has been little wind
effect, while at or above treeline the wind has transported snow onto the
North-East aspects, so read on to the avalanche danger.
The road to Geyser Pass has yet to be plowed, so icy and snow
packed areas will exist. The Road crew
should be up there sometime in the later a.m.
Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)
Geyser
Pass Trailhead (9,600’): 34.8” at
the SNOTEL site with a temperature of 27.5 degrees at 5:00 am.
Pre-Laurel
Peak (11,700’): Our efforts in
fixing the Weather station yesterday proved to be fruitless, it might be time
to call in the big guns.
Gold Basin and South Mountain:
Around 65” to 70” of settled snow on the ground.
Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)
A moist and unstable air mass will remain in place as a weakening
storm system will slowly move over the region.
A ridge of high pressure will develop for the beginning of next
week.
Today: Snow likely before
noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near
28. Winds will be out of the West at
5-10 mph, gusting to 20. 60% chance of
snow. Less than 2” of snow is possible.
Tonight: 30% chance of
snow past midnight. Mostly cloudy, low
near 14. Winds will be out of the
Southwest at 5 mph.
Saturday: 50% chance of
snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a
high near 27. Winds will be our of the
SSE at 5 mph. 1-2” possible.
Avalanche Conditions:
Abajo Mountains:
With 12” of heavy snow falling over the past 48 hours and a base of 70” at Camp Jackson, the benign conditions of the past week has dramatically changed. The trade winds have been out of the Southwest, and have been strong enough to transport snow onto those North-East aspects. The old snow surface on these aspects have been creating near surface facets, due to the large daily temperature swings. The heavy new snow that has fallen will not bond well to this weak layer, and unstable conditions might exist on these North-East facing slopes. Your safest bet will be to recreate on South-West aspects, where the new snow has bonded better to the old sun crust. The Bottom Line for the Abajos will be an avalanche danger of CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind-loaded slopes greater than 35 degrees on North-East aspects.
La Sal Mountains:
Observations yesterday pointed to our main concern being on North-East
aspects. The past two weeks of high
pressure has changed the surface conditions from powder to what are called
near-surface-facets; a weak, non-cohesive layer that new snow or wind slabs
bond poorly to. Shooting cracks,
whoomping and small avalanches occurred on these aspects. The higher in elevation you go, the deeper
the snow is on these aspects and the snow pack is becoming more unstable. Currently I am going to rate the avalanche
danger at MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on wind
effected slopes on N-E aspects greater than 35 degrees. Be weary of those trigger points, such as
rock outcroppings and shallow snow deposits on these aspects, where your
pressure can transfer your energy easier into the snow pack! For the rest of the areas, I am going to
rate the avalanche danger at LOW.
Nordic and Skate Skiing:
Fresh
snow and temperatures in the low 30’s will mean some fun skiing!