Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good Afternoon! This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Thursday, January 27^th, 2005 at 7:30 am. This bulletin is sponsored in part by Canyon Voyages, Moab’s finest river running and retail store, proud sponsors of the Friends of the Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center. This advisory will expire in 24 hours and will be updated Friday morning.

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

General Conditions:

The hard rain in Moab has translated into about 3” up at the Geyser Pass Trailhead so far at 5:00 am this morning. We’ll take anything we can in January! The road up to the Geyser Pass Trailhead is going to be slick in spots, the snow line is quite low, so there could be some icy patches. Today you can expect some dust on crust on South through West Aspects, while the Northerly aspects will be quite supportable and soft.

Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): 34” at the SNOTEL site with a temperature of 31 degrees at 5:00 am.

Pre-Laurel Peak (11,700’): The weather station is down due to an alignment problem with the antenna, we’ll be up there TODAY to fix the problem.

Gold Basin and South Mountain: Around 65” to 70” of settled snow on the ground.

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Today: Periods of snow. High near 29. Breezy, with a Southwest wind at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30. Chance of precipitation is 90%. 2-4” is expected.

Tonight: Snow likely. Cloudy. Low near 16. Winds will be out of the Southwest at 15-20, gusting to 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. 2-4” of snow is expected.

Friday: 40% chance of snow. Mostly cloudy. High near 28. Winds will be out of the SSW at 10-15, gusting to 25.

Avalanche Conditions

The two weeks of high pressure has ended, and the snow is falling in the mountains. There are a few things to think about currently, one area of mention is above tree-line locations on N-NE aspects that could fail. These slabs of snow can be triggered from shallow rocky areas where a skier could transfer their energy into the snow pack easier. What about the new snow we are going to receive? Is there a surface hoar layer that is going to get buried on some North through East aspects? How is the snow going to bond to those sun crusts? Could the new snow load be enough to have avalanches fail deep within the snow pack? Great questions everyone. Now we are just waiting to see how much snow is going to fall, how fast the wind is going to blow and at what temperatures. Currently I am going to rate the avalanche danger at MODERATE on wind effected slopes on N-E aspects greater than 35 degrees. Be weary of those trigger points! For the rest of the areas, I am going to rate the avalanche danger at LOW. The Avalanche Danger will increase in the next 24 hours in response to new snow and strong winds, so check back tomorrow morning.

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

Fresh snow and temperatures in the low 30’s will mean some fun skiing!