Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest               

Introduction:  Good Afternoon!  This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Wednesday, January 26th, 2005 at .  This bulletin is sponsored in part by Canyon Voyages, Moab’s finest river running and retail store, proud sponsors of the Friends of the Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center.  This advisory will expire in 24 hours and will be updated Thursday morning. 

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

 

General Conditions:

A change is in the air!  Our blue skies have been traded in for some clouds that will be in the area into the weekend.  There is a possibility that snow is going to fly up in the La Sal’s.  There is some consolidated powder to go and ski up on Northerly aspects above 10,000’ while the southerly aspects haven’t warmed up today and will probably be a mix of breakable and supportable crusts.  Our January thaw is over for the time being and back to some more winter conditions.  The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead is in great shape. 

 

Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’):  30” at the SNOTEL site with a temperature of 38 degrees at noon. 

Pre-Laurel Peak (11,700’):  The weather station is down due to an alignment problem with the antenna, we’ll be up there tomorrow to fix the problem.    

Gold Basin and South Mountain:  Around 60” to 65” of settled snow on the ground. 

 

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Wednesday Afternoon:  Scattered snow showers.  Cloudy with a high near 38.  Breezy with a SSW wind at 10-20 mph, gusting to 35.  Chance of precipitation is 40%

Wednesday Night:  Snow likely.  Cloudy, low near 19.  Breezy with a WSW wind at 25 mph, gusting to 40.  Chance of precipitation is 70%.  New snow accumulations of 3-5” expected.

Thursday:  Snow likely.  Cloudy.  High near 32.  Breezy with a SSW wind at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35.  Chance of precipitation is 70%.  New snow accumulations of 1-2” expected. 

 

Avalanche Conditions

            The two weeks of high pressure is threatening to end today and snow is in the forecast.  There are a few things to think about currently, above tree-line locations on N-NE aspects that could slide.  These slabs of snow can be triggered from shallow rocky areas where a skier could transfer their energy into the snow pack easier.  South aspects are locked into place again.  What about the new snow we are going to receive?  Is there a surface hoar layer that is going to get buried on some North through East aspects?  How is the snow going to bond to those sun crusts?  Could the new snow load be enough to have avalanches fail deep within the snow pack?  Great questions everyone.  Now we are just waiting to see how much snow is going to fall, how fast the wind is going to blow and at what temperatures.  Currently I am going to rate the avalanche danger at MODERATE on steep slopes above tree line on N-E aspects.  Be weary of those trigger points!  For the rest of the areas, I am going to rate the avalanche danger at LOW.  The Avalanche Danger will increase in the next 24 hours in response to new snow and strong winds, so check back tomorrow morning. 

 

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

Your wax arsenal should include the full gambit for today, including Klister.