Introduction: Good Afternoon! This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La
Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Wednesday, January 26th,
2005 at . This bulletin is sponsored in
part by Canyon Voyages, Moab’s
finest river running and retail store, proud sponsors of the Friends of the
Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center. This
advisory will expire in 24 hours and will be updated Thursday morning.
To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.
General Conditions:
A change is in the air!
Our blue skies have been traded in for some clouds that will be in the
area into the weekend. There is a
possibility that snow is going to fly up in the La Sal’s. There is some consolidated powder to go and
ski up on Northerly aspects above 10,000’ while the southerly aspects haven’t
warmed up today and will probably be a mix of breakable and supportable
crusts. Our January thaw is over for
the time being and back to some more winter conditions. The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead is in
great shape.
Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)
Geyser
Pass Trailhead (9,600’): 30” at the
SNOTEL site with a temperature of 38 degrees at noon.
Pre-Laurel
Peak (11,700’): The weather station
is down due to an alignment problem with the antenna, we’ll be up there
tomorrow to fix the problem.
Gold Basin and South Mountain:
Around 60” to 65” of settled snow on the ground.
Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)
Wednesday Afternoon: Scattered snow
showers. Cloudy with a high near
38. Breezy with a SSW wind at 10-20
mph, gusting to 35. Chance of
precipitation is 40%
Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, low near 19. Breezy with a WSW wind at 25 mph, gusting to
40. Chance of precipitation is
70%. New snow accumulations of 3-5”
expected.
Thursday: Snow likely. Cloudy.
High near 32. Breezy with a SSW
wind at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35.
Chance of precipitation is 70%.
New snow accumulations of 1-2” expected.
Avalanche Conditions
The two
weeks of high pressure is threatening to end today and snow is in the
forecast. There are a few things to
think about currently, above tree-line locations on N-NE aspects that could
slide. These slabs of snow can be
triggered from shallow rocky areas where a skier could transfer their energy
into the snow pack easier. South
aspects are locked into place again.
What about the new snow we are going to receive? Is there a surface hoar layer that is going
to get buried on some North through East aspects? How is the snow going to bond to those sun crusts? Could the new snow load be enough to have
avalanches fail deep within the snow pack?
Great questions everyone. Now we
are just waiting to see how much snow is going to fall, how fast the wind is
going to blow and at what temperatures.
Currently I am going to rate the avalanche danger at MODERATE
on steep slopes above tree line on N-E aspects. Be weary of those trigger points! For the rest of the areas, I am going to
rate the avalanche danger at LOW. The Avalanche Danger
will increase in the next 24 hours in response to new snow and strong winds, so
check back tomorrow morning.
Nordic and Skate Skiing:
Your
wax arsenal should include the full gambit for today, including Klister.