Manti-La
Sal Avalanche Center
US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National
Forest
Introduction: Good
Morning! This is Evan Stevens with the
USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather
advisory. Today is Wednesday, January 5th,
2005 at 7:30 a.m. This bulletin is
sponsored in part by Moab Desert
Adventures, the professional rock climbing guide service of Moab, proud
sponsors of the Friends of the Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center.
To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.
General Conditions:
Skiing and riding conditions continue to be excellent in the
sheltered areas as another 4-6 of new snow has piled up yesterday and last
night, bringing our storm total to about 8-12 of the white stuff. The winds were blowing a bit last night from
the S to SW, but at a much subdued rate compared to the last few weeks-sustained
speeds in the 15-25mph range with gusts ONLY in the 40 to 50mph range. Expect the all you can eat buffet of
conditions out there, with powder in the trees and sheltered spots, to wind
slabs and scoured terrain in the open spaces and above treeline. The Geyser Pass road was plowed yesterday,
but some new snow will be on it today, so 4WD and chains are recommended,
expect some drifting as well.
On another note, the Abajo Mountains have receive a staggering 30
of new snow, the biggest storm there in years, I think, and I will therefore
issue a special avalanche advisory for the range.
Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)
Geyser
Pass Trailhead (9,600): 28 at the
SNOTEL site and about 36 at the snow stake with a temperature of 19 degrees.
Pre-Laurel
Peak (11,700): 6 degrees with
winds not being recorded as of 5am-maybe a little bit of riming?
Gold Basin 48 to 58 of settled snow on the ground.
Mountain Weather: (At 10,500)
Today:
Occasional snow
showers, mainly before noon. High around 13. Wind chill values between -5 and
zero. West wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of
precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Tonight: A 40 percent chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around
3. Wind chill values between -1 and -6. Southwest wind around 5 mph, with gusts
as high as 20 mph.
Thursday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near
14. Wind chill values between -8 and zero. South southwest wind between 5 and
15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Avalanche Conditions:
ABAJO MOUNTAINS
As I briefly mentioned, the Abajo Mountains are at there
breaking point with this large load, especially another 6-8 of new snow
overnight with our increased winds. You
can expect most of the avalanche paths to be loaded and waiting to avalanche or
already have. With a 30 storm total,
the danger in the Abajos is rated at HIGH to EXTREME. The existing shallow snowpack before this
series of storms was extremely weak and faceted and will easily fail under this
load. Suspect all slopes steeper than
30 degrees as dangerous, and stay out from underneath the large slide
paths.
LA SAL MOUNTAINS
Although
only 50 miles away, the La Sals have not quite seen the moisture as intensely
as our southern neighbors. However, a foot of new snow and strong winds is
nothing to scoff at, and our weak and faceted snowpack at and below treeline
will be struggling to support this new load, especially in places where the
winds were able to reach. Exxons folly, which
avalanche from mid-slope in the early and dark hours of yesterday morning is a
perfect example of this. As the
photo shows, the slope did not fail until mid-path, in places where the wind
speeds diminish and more snow is deposited-on top of existing weak snow. Its dimensions were about 1 to 2 feet deep
and a few hundred feet wide. As a
result the avalanche danger is checking in at CONSIDERABLE on all slopes and wind
loaded aspects steeper than 35 degrees.
Remember that CONSIDERABLE danger means human
triggered avalanches are probable and natural avalanches are possible. Remember that the STEEP trees are not a safe
haven today-that is where the weakest snowpacks can be found, and your weight
might be all that is needed to make a slope fail.
Nordic and Skate Skiing:
Tough conditions out
there until some sleds can break some trail, or maybe you like to get a good trail
breaking workout?