Introduction: Good
Morning! This is Max Forgensi with the
USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather
advisory. Today is Monday, December 27th,
2004 at 8:00 a.m
To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.
General Conditions:
Skiing conditions in the La Sals are quite pleasant considering
the last significant snowfall was on the 9th. Yesterday there was PLENTY of good skiing
found below tree line on those shady northerly aspects. The snow pack is losing its strength though,
and with what is forecasted for the next five days, it should be pretty interesting,
so read on. Above tree line those
sun-crusts will be found on Southern aspects, and variable wind slabs are
present on north aspects above tree line.
Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)
Geyser
Pass Trailhead (9,600’): 36 degrees
out with 21” on the ground
Pre-Laurel
Peak (11,700’): 7:00 am
temperature is 21 degrees, and the winds are averaging 30 mph out of the SW with
gusts as high as 47.
Gold Basin has about 36” of settled snow on the ground.
Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)
NWS is saying that there is remarkable agreement between all
models which is yielding increasing confidence with their forecast, that
forecast calls for a chance of snow in the La Sals for the next five days.
Today: 20% chance of snow after 11 a.m. High near 26. Winds will
be out of the South at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low
near 7. 30% chance of snow. Winds will be out of the South at 15, gusting to 30.
Tuesday: 40% chance of snow
post 4:00 p.m. Mostly cloudy with a
high near 25. Winds will continue out of the south at 15
mph, gusting to 30.
Avalanche Conditions:
The La Sal
Mountains are setting up for the chance of a large avalanche cycle. With winds forecasted to be out of the south
and strong enough to transport snow onto Northerly aspects, those aspects will
be receiving a significant load. Our
North aspects are where the snow on the ground is weakest currently. Depth Hoar crystals have been forming close
to the ground (weak layer). In the
middle of the snow pack, the snow still holds some cohesiveness. The upper third of our snow pack on these
Northerly aspects are a mix of consolidated powder, surface hoar and near
surface facets (weak layer). You cannot make a snowball with it. Yesterday, we went to find these areas that
are of concern and found the weak facet-gardens on these Northerly aspects. These will be our greatest concern when the
snow starts to fly.
What this all boils down to is
this…for today the avalanche danger will be MODERATE in pockets
of wind slabs on slopes greater than 35 degrees above tree line and on steep,
unconsolidated Northerly aspects. The
rest of the area will be LOW.
Enjoy the mixed conditions for now.
Nordic and Skate Skiing:
An enjoyable day for you
classic Nordic and Skate skiers as tracks are packed out and fast to Geyser Pass
and Gold Basin.