Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest               

Introduction:  Good Morning!  This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Monday, December 27th, 2004 at 8:00 a.m

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

 

General Conditions:

Skiing conditions in the La Sals are quite pleasant considering the last significant snowfall was on the 9th.  Yesterday there was PLENTY of good skiing found below tree line on those shady northerly aspects.  The snow pack is losing its strength though, and with what is forecasted for the next five days, it should be pretty interesting, so read on.  Above tree line those sun-crusts will be found on Southern aspects, and variable wind slabs are present on north aspects above tree line. 

 

Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’):  36 degrees out with 21” on the ground

Pre-Laurel Peak (11,700’):   7:00 am temperature is 21 degrees, and the winds are averaging 30 mph out of the SW with gusts as high as 47. 

Gold Basin has about 36” of settled snow on the ground.

 

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

NWS is saying that there is remarkable agreement between all models which is yielding increasing confidence with their forecast, that forecast calls for a chance of snow in the La Sals for the next five days.   

Today:  20% chance of snow after 11 a.m.   High near 26.  Winds will be out of the South at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25. 

Tonight:   Mostly cloudy.  Low near 7.  30% chance of snow.   Winds will be out of the South at 15, gusting to 30.
Tuesday:   40% chance of snow post 4:00 p.m.  Mostly cloudy with a high near 25.   Winds will continue out of the south at 15 mph, gusting to 30. 

 

Avalanche Conditions:

   The La Sal Mountains are setting up for the chance of a large avalanche cycle.  With winds forecasted to be out of the south and strong enough to transport snow onto Northerly aspects, those aspects will be receiving a significant load.  Our North aspects are where the snow on the ground is weakest currently.  Depth Hoar crystals have been forming close to the ground (weak layer).  In the middle of the snow pack, the snow still holds some cohesiveness.  The upper third of our snow pack on these Northerly aspects are a mix of consolidated powder, surface hoar and near surface facets (weak layer).   You cannot make a snowball with it.  Yesterday, we went to find these areas that are of concern and found the weak facet-gardens on these Northerly aspects.  These will be our greatest concern when the snow starts to fly.   

What this all boils down to is this…for today the avalanche danger will be MODERATE in pockets of wind slabs on slopes greater than 35 degrees above tree line and on steep, unconsolidated Northerly aspects.   The rest of the area will be LOW.  Enjoy the mixed conditions for now. 

 

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

An enjoyable day for you classic Nordic and Skate skiers as tracks are packed out and fast to Geyser Pass and Gold Basin.