Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good Morning! This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Sunday, December 26th, 2004 at 7:30 a.m

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

General Conditions:

As the old saying goes, “Red sky at dawn, skiers are forewarned…”. A change is in the air, and snow is on its way. Its not here yet and the valley inversions will stay in place for a couple more days. It warmed up quite nicely in the mountains yesterday, with a high of 43 degrees. The snow conditions haven’t changed very much in the past couple of days, consolidated powder on those North aspects below tree line and a mixed bag of crusts pretty much everywhere else. Read the Avalanche Conditions for more information.

Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): 33 degrees out with 21”-24” on the ground

Pre-Laurel Peak (11,700’): 7:00 am temperature is 21 degrees, and the winds are averaging 18 mph with gusts as high as 25. The Weather Station is having some technical difficulties right now, and a repair is on its way so we can figure out what direction the winds are coming out of.

Gold Basin has about 36” of settled snow on the ground.

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

NWS is saying that there is remarkable agreement between all models which is yielding increasing confidence with their forecast.

Today: Partly cloudy. High near 30. Winds will be out of the South at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low near 10. Wind chill values between –2 and +6. Winds will be out of the South at 10-15, gusting to 25.
Monday: 40% chance of snow post 4:00 p.m. Mostly cloudy with a high near 26.

Avalanche Conditions:

How is your mental map of what is happening to snow grains coming along? What is happening on the surface (surface hoar, near surface facets) and what is happening to snow near the ground? We have been lucky to reach a meter of snow this year early on in the season, although two weeks of high pressure has been eating away at our base. We are going to need some more snow to start thinking about another large avalanche cycle, and have the snow will react to the changes it is going through currently. Here is a couple things to observe before the snow starts to fly. Where and what type of faceting is occurring on the surface of the snow? Are the surface hoar grains persisting or have they been destroyed by sun and wind? How tender or those isolated wind slabs? Will it have enough energy left to trigger a larger avalanche if the old wind slab is buried by a more consistent load? What this all boils down to is this…for today the avalanche danger will be MODERATE in pockets of wind slabs on slopes greater than 35 degrees above tree line. The rest of the area will be LOW. Enjoy the mixed conditions for now.

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

An enjoyable day for you classic Nordic and Skate skiers as tracks are packed out and fast to Geyser Pass and Gold Basin.