Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good Morning! This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Wednesday, December 22nd, 2004 at 9:00 a.m.

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

General Conditions:

High pressure systems…mmmmmmmm. We haven’t received any snow in the past 14 days and can you believe it? There is still some decent skiing out there for you backcountry enthusiasts. Well, in some places. Above tree-line, expect teeth-chattering supportable sun crust on south aspects while on the north aspects you will find solid, chalky wind slab. Below tree-line will be your best bet to find settled powder on those shady, north aspects while on the southern aspects expects not so supportable crusts and even some bare slopes. The skate skiing conditions to Geyser Pass will be fast and some good cross country skiing opportunities are on the road to Gold Basin.

Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): 9.7 degrees out with 21”-24” on the ground

Pre-Laurel Peak (11,700’): 7:00 am temperature is 10 degrees, and the winds are at 21 mph. The Weather Station is having some technical difficulties right now, and a repair is on its way so we can figure out what direction the winds are coming out of.

Gold Basin has about 36-40” of settled snow on the ground.

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

The jet stream is flowing into the area from the Northwest today and tomorrow, bringing with it colder temperatures from Canada. Unfortunately, there is little or no moisture associated with this system, just a bunch of cold air. There are a handful of models forecasters use to predict what the weather is going to do…our mantra should be GFS, GFS, the rebel model that predicts some snow for our area at the beginning of next week. Wash your cars, we need all the help we can get.

Today: The NWS says that we have a chance of snow today…I’ll believe it when I see it. High around 19.
Tonight: Lows near zero.
Thursday: Colder with highs in the single digits.

Avalanche Conditions:

The natural avalanche cycle has been over for quite some time and the snow is pretty happy to be where it is in most areas for the time being. There could be a pocket of snow out there that could be reactive to a skier pressure, although the snow is locked in pretty tight in areas that would be more likely to slide. It is time to make a mental map of what is happening to snow grains on the surface (surface hoar, near surface facets) and also see how snow near the ground is metamorphing. We have been lucky to reach a meter of snow this year early on in the season, a good depth to protect snow near the ground from changing quickly in response to swings of cold temperatures. Depth-hoar crystal formation (sugar-snow) has been limited to lower elevations where the snow has been shallower than one meter. The cold temperatures we have been experiencing the past couple of days and what is forecasted the rest of the week can and will change the snow packs stability, unfortunately it is becoming less stable. We are going to need some more snow to start thinking about another large avalanche cycle, and have the snow will react to the changes it is going through currently. What this all boils down to is this…for today the avalanche danger will be MODERATE in pockets of wind slabs on slopes greater than 35 degrees above tree line. The rest of the area will be LOW. Enjoy the mixed conditions for now.

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

An enjoyable day for you classic Nordic and Skate skiers as tracks are packed out and fast to Geyser Pass and Gold Basin.