Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good Morning! This is Evan Stevens with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Saturday, November 27^th, 2004 at 7:45 a.m.

General Conditions:

As everyone’s turkey power starts to fade and the credit cards tire from holiday shopping, mother nature is poised to pick up on the action, as SE Utah prepares for another bout of moisture; a WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect from noon until Monday morning with 10”-20” of new snow possible. Today will see a continuation of excellent skiing and riding at and below treeline on yesterday’s 4”-6” of new snow. Settled snow depths range from 20” at 9,600’ to about 32”-36” in Gold Basin, with higher amounts in more favored locations. Currently it is lightly overcast and 33 degrees in town, 22 degrees at 9,600’ and 16 degrees with winds out of the ENE at 20 to 40mph at 11,700’. Remember, snow depths are still thin, especially at low elevations so be wary of obstacles such as rocks and logs, hiding just at or below the snow surface. The road won’t be plowed until Monday, so chains and 4WD are recommended.

Mountain Weather:

If you like to be in the mountains when it is snowing and blowing then you have about 48 hours to get up there. Snow should begin around noon, with highs in the upper 20’s today and 1-3” of snow in the daylight hours with winds from the SW at 20-30mph. Tonight should see some heavy snow with accumulations of 4-8”, lows in the teens and winds at 20 to 30mph from the west.

Avalanche Conditions:

Right now, the avalanche conditions are still a little tricky, which is only going to complicate things when a larger load is added to the snowpack tonight. As you head out today keep in mind the layers that are buried in our snowpack. Numerous snowpit tests and test slopes yesterday indicated that a surface hoar layer from around November 20^th buried about a foot deep is still reactive, as well as yesterday’s new shallow surface soft and hard slabs of around 4” to 8” deep. On test slopes of 35 degrees and steeper we were able to get shooting cracks and small slabs to break free, indicating that I did not want to be traveling in wind loaded locations. Overnight winds continued to build slightly deeper slabs in exposed locations. This all adds up to an avalanche danger of MODERATE, with pockets of CONSIDERABLE in wind loaded locations (ENE-NE-N-NW aspects) at or above treeline and in crossloaded slopes and gullies steeper than 35 degrees. Don’t forget-sometimes it is necessary to state the obvious-the avalanche danger will increase as the new snow starts to pile up today. And the danger will stay elevated for around 24 to 48 hours after the storm subsides. But I don’t anticipate enough new snow to bump the danger past it’s current levels until tonight.

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

Nordic conditions are great today up through Geyser Pass and into Gold Basin. Enough snowmobiles have passed through that a marginal skate track is in place to Geyser Pass as well.