Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good Morning! This is Evan Stevens with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Friday, February 27th, 2004 at 7:30 a.m.

Click here for recent photos. Click here for Snowpits. You can always email us observations as well by clicking here, or sending a message to [email protected] or [email protected].

General Conditions:

This is what I like to call game time. With a WINTER STORM WARNING in effect, you better have your avalanche skills honed if you are heading out into the backcountry later today, through this weekend. Currently it is blowing hard out there ahead of this storm with sustained winds in the 15-30mph range for the last 24-36 hours. Temperatures are at 28 degrees at 9,600’ and 16 degrees at 11,700’. If you want to find some decent turning and riding conditions then you better seek out the shady and sheltered locations. We have about 46” on the ground at 9,600’ and about 68” on the ground in Gold Basin.

Mountain Weather:

We could see about 12-20” of new snow when this storm is all said and done. It starts to trickle in today with 2-4” of new snow and strong winds at 25-30mph from the S with gusts in the 40’s and temperatures near 30. Tonight is the brunt of the storm with another 8-12” of snow and strong winds at 25-30mph from the S-SW with gusts into the 40’s with temperatures near 20. Tomorrow the storm lingers a bit more, with another 3-5” of snow tapering off as the day goes on and temperatures in the 20’s with winds continuing from the S-SW at 20-25mph.

Avalanche Conditions:

With out even taking our old snowpack into consideration, many of the red flag warning signs of avalanche activity will be out there for the next 24-48 hours. With strong new snowfall expected accompanied by consistent winds in the optimal wind loading ranges the avalanche danger should rise this afternoon and stay up for through til Sunday evening, with a peak in avalanche activity early Saturday. When you through the old snowpack into the occasion there are an abundance of factors that will also play into the avalanche game. Old wind slabs and easy shears 1-2’ down in the upper elevation shady snowpacks will probably react to the significant new load, while southerly aspects have a precarious facet-crust sandwich which was collapsing regularly with the weigh of a winter traveler. Lower elevation shady areas still have an abundance of weak snow from our January high pressure, and will surely react as well. Essentially this boils down to a MODERATE danger on all aspects, but especially wind loaded terrain, NE-NW aspects, on slopes steeper than 35 degrees. As the snow starts to fly, the danger could rise to a blanket CONSIDERABLE by this afternoon or even higher there will be plenty of danger signs out there in the next 24-48 hours to warn you about traveling in avalanche terrain-heed their warnings!

Remember that a MODERATE avalanche danger means human triggered avalanches are possible, while CONSIDERABLE danger means human triggered avalanches are probable and natural avalanches are possible.

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

The Lasaloppet is just around the corner, so get in shape. Wax for warm snow temps. There is a decent traditional track in right now to Geyser Pass.