Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good Morning! This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Sunday, February 15th, 2004 at 7:45am.

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General Conditions:

Another beautiful day is on tap for the mountains! Currently in Moab it is 15 degrees out under clear skies and no wind. Up at the Geyser Pass Trailhead it is 16 degrees out and there is 38 inches of snow on the ground. On Pre-Laurel Peak, the winds are blowing out of the NNW at 14 mph and gusting to 19. It is 9 degrees up above tree line right now. Gold Basin has over five feet of snow on the ground and there is over four feet of snow anywhere above 10,000’. The roads up to the trailheads are all plowed and in great shape.

Mountain Weather:

High pressure is still dominating our area and will give way to some warmer temps through the beginning of the week. Our next best chance for snow is Wednesday night and Thursday morning, lets keep our fingers crossed.

Today: Partly cloudy skies turning to mostly cloudy in the P.M. High 25-35.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies turning to partly cloudy by morning. Low 5-15.

Presidents Day: Partly cloudy. High near 30.

Avalanche Conditions:

Yesterday I was out in the lower elevations (9,000’-10,500’) to start the mapping of the snow surfaces and find weaknesses in the snow pack. Around the 9,000’ level I found only two feet of snow in most areas…the northerly aspects being full of facets and the southerly aspects all sun crusted up. But as soon as you hit the 9,600’ level, the snow pack got deeper (3-4’) and the snow was getting stronger. We still observed some collapsing, mainly in meadows and on top of ridges. There are still weak layers from our January high pressure that are buried under our February snows…where and what will make them react? My main concern is with the newly deposited wind slabs. If they sound hollow, the recipe for an avalanche is present.

That being said I am going to continue to keep the same danger rating as I did for yesterday, an avalanche danger of MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on slopes steeper than 35 degrees on loaded aspects at and above treeline, with extra caution needed for terrain traps and open lower elevation areas, below treeline areas.

Remember a CONSIDERABLE danger means human triggered avalanches are PROBABLE and natural avalanches are possible, while MODERATE danger means human triggered avalanches are possible.

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

With some descent tracks packed in out there it’s a great option. Snowmobile traffic on the Geyser Pass Road may have made it wide enough to skate.