Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good Morning! This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Valentines Day, February 14th, 2004 at 7:45am.

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General Conditions:

The winds from yesterday are finally subsiding. And so far this morning it appears that it is going to be a bluebird day. Currently it is 17 degrees in Moab under fair skies and a calm wind. Up at the Geyser Pass Trailhead it is 19 degrees and there is 38 inches of snow on the ground. Up on Pre-Laurel Peak it is 19 degrees as well, the wind is out of the west at 2 mph and gusting to five. The road up to the trailheads are plowed and in great shape.

Mountain Weather:

Can someone say high pressure? It is a good time to get out and start mapping weaknesses in the snow pack and the snow surface characteristics. We have a chance for some snow in the next day but I wouldn’t hold your breath. Expect this pattern to last for at least five more days.

Today: Partly Cloudy. High 25-35.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow. Low 5-15.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow. High near 30.

Avalanche Conditions:

It has been about 6 days since our last storm and collapsing is still common place. The San Juan’s reported the same strong winds as we did yesterday. They observed that a fresh 6” slab was created on Southerly aspects above treeline and that shooting cracks came with that territory…a sure sign of instability. There are still weak layers from our January high pressure and our February snows are now sitting on top of those. These scary pieces of snow out there are definitely becoming a bit more stubborn but could react to a skier or snowmobiler. Near and above tree line locations in gullies and bowls, and scruffy tree bands near ridge lines on slopes steeper than 35 degrees look like they have slabs in place. What this all translates too is an avalanche danger of MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on slopes steeper than 35 degrees on loaded aspects at and above treeline, with extra caution needed for terrain traps and open lower elevation areas, below treeline areas.

Remember a CONSIDERABLE danger means human triggered avalanches are PROBABLE and natural avalanches are possible, while MODERATE danger means human triggered avalanches are possible.

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

With some descent tracks packed in out there it’s a great option. Snowmobile traffic on the Geyser Pass Road may have made it wide enough to skate.