Introduction: Good
Morning! This is Max Forgensi with the
USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather
advisory. Today is Wednesday, February
4th, 2004 at 7:30 am.
February 7th through 9th is our Level 1
avalanche course. Call 259-7155 to
register.
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General Conditions:
We are in a winter storm warning
through today, the storm finally hit yesterday starting at about 1P.M. and it
continues to dump snow from Moab to the tops of the mountains. Currently it is 29 degrees in Moab. Up at the Geyser Pass Trailhead, the
temperature is 16 degrees, six inches have accumulated and there is 41” on the
ground . You can expect over double that new snow amount at higher
elevations. Up on Pre-Laurel Peak the
temperature is 4 degrees and the winds have veered to the NW under light
winds. I am going to say that the wind
speeds are a bit suspect up there, assume they are howling until proven
otherwise. At Gold Basin we have over
60” of snow on the ground. The road to
Geyser Pass will be plowed sometime today, although if you’re an early bird,
don’t expect it, 4WD and chains are recommended.
Mountain Weather:
You know it is a great snow year when you have to extend the snow
stake in Gold Basin…
Today: Winter storm warning.
Occasional snow showers.
2”-4” expected. High around
20.
Tonight: Cloudy with snow
likely. An additional 2” expected to
accumulate. Low 10-20.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy
with a 30% chance of snow. High in the
20’s.
Avalanche Conditions:
A special avalanche advisory is being issued for the La
Sal Mountains. Large,
far running avalanches are occurring naturally and will be likely throughout
the day. Stay off steep slopes and out
of run out zones. There are numerous
contributing factors to this warning, starting from the high pressure that
locked in over the area in mid-January.
Our snow pack was generally strong then (bed surface), although the cold
clear nights and solar radiation created surface hoar and near surface facets
(weak layer). Next came a couple of
snow storms that came in cold and buried these weak layers under small wind
slabs, then the wind that preceded this event and is continuing to blow during
this storm has increased the weight on top of the weak layers (cohesive
slab). The snow from this storm is
heavy, and Mother Nature has her prime conditions for natural avalanches. Yesterday I observed widespread cracking and
collapsing on all aspects, and a natural avalanche occurred just below the
Geyser Pass Trailhead. Winds have been
blowing out of the NW, S and SSW and SSE at moderate speeds for the past four
days, and there has been plenty of snow to transport. Test pits yielded very easy to easy shears.
Bottom Line for Today: The avalanche danger is going to be CONSIDERABLE at or
above treeline with pockets of HIGH on
NW-NE aspects. Today is a great day to
stay on sheltered, lower angled terrain.
Below tree line the avalanche danger is going to be MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind-loaded slopes
greater than 35 degrees. Watch those
runout zones!
Nordic and Skate Skiing: A good work out
day. The snow is so heavy that you
really don’t sink through to the old track.