Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction: Good Morning! This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Tuesday, February 3rd, 2004 at 8:00am.

February 7^th through 9^th is our Level 1 avalanche course. Call 259-7155 to register.

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General Conditions:

We are in a winter storm warning through Wednesday, as the storm is taking a little longer than expected to reach the La Sal Mountains. Currently it is 29 degrees in Moab, and the winds are variable up to 6 mph. Up at the Geyser Pass Trailhead, it is 24 degrees and there is 37” of snow on the ground while up on Pre-Laurel Peak the temperature is 8 degrees with winds out of the SSE at 27 mph. There is over 50” of snow in Gold Basin. The road up to the trailhead is plowed and snow packed, 4WD is recommended, especially with the new snow expected. The Geyser Pass Trail is ready for some skate skiing and Nordic skiing, extra blue is recommended. Read on.

Mountain Weather:

All models indicate snow is on the way, and should stay in the area in the upwards of 18 hours. I expect the snow to fly sometime around noon.

Today: Winter storm warning. Periods of snow then snow in the P.M. 2”-4” expected. High around 20. Winds out of the South at 15-25 mph.

Tonight: Cloudy and gusty winds. Accumulations of 5-10” expected. Winds out of the SW at 10-15 mph.

Wednesday: More accumulations expected. 1-3”. High in the 20’s.

Avalanche Conditions:

The winds have been howling above tree line and continue to do so, and the relative humidity is above 85% which means the snow has been and will be transporting to lee sides of mountains and ridges. The general direction of the wind is out of the South, so expect Northerly aspects to be the ones being loaded as the new snow comes in. We have some instabilities in the upper snowpack, where near surface facets and potentially some lingering surface hoar have led to poor bonding in the upper pack. With the chance of some significant loading, expect that the avalanche danger will rise. Currently, I am going to rate the back country danger at or above treeline at MODERATE on leeward slopes greater than 35 degrees. The rest of the area I am going to rate as LOW. I am going to say as the day progresses, the avalanche danger will rise to

CONSIDERABLE on wind loaded slopes. Make sure you have plenty of options today.