Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest               

Introduction:

Good Morning!  This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Thursday, December 18th, 2003 at 7:30 A.M

 

General Conditions:

High pressure is dominating our weather here in the La Sals.  Currently in Moab it is 18F under clear skies and calm winds.  Up at the Geyser Pass Trailhead it is 28F and there is 25.8” at the SNOTEL stake.  Our Pre-Laurel Peak weather station is registering 28F with winds generally out of the NW at 15 mph.  At our Gold Basin snow stake, there is 37” of snow.  It warmed up quite nicely yesterday.  For seven hours the temperature stayed over freezing with a high temperature of 44.6F at 13:00 at the trailhead.  Read the Avalanche Conditions to learn more.  The road up to the GPTH is plowed really well. 

 

Mountain Weather:

Today:  Mostly sunny.  High near 37.  Winds calm. 

Tonight:  Mostly clear.  Low near 24.  Calm wind becoming SE around 5 mph. 

Friday:  Partly cloudy.  High near 35.  Winds 8 mph out of the SE.

The next best chance for snow is going to be on Sunday. 

 

Avalanche Conditions:

While out in the field yesterday, I was once again amazed by the lack of signs of instability Mother Nature was giving us.  I observed a sluff in the NE gully of Tuk No, some small cornice development on ridge lines and some wind loading on some N-NE facing slopes, high in the starting zones.  The warm weather we have had for the past two days up there has been good for settlement, which is good for our snow pack to gain strength, but also has left a good sun crust on SE-SW facing slopes.  I was able to ski through this crust yesterday without it hampering my turns, although I believe today it will be quite a bit firmer, so be careful as you ski.  Maybe today’s temperatures will soften things up and give us some creamy conditions.  There was some significant surface hoar development two nights ago as well, mostly in the 9,600’-10,800’ range.  We will be monitoring that to see if it will persist or destroy by the next snow storm.  For today, I am going to downgrade the avalanche danger to MODERATE in areas at or above tree line that has been wind loaded and on slopes steeper than 35 degrees.  The rest of the areas I am going to rate as LOW.  Just because the avalanche danger has been reduced does not mean that you can let your guard down.  PAY ATTENTION to what the snow pack, terrain and weather are telling you and not on the allure of the powder.  

 

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

Some snowmobilers were out yesterday, making it time to head out with your Nordic and skating gear!  The track is getting wider all of the time.  For those of you who are skate skiers out there, drop a line and tell me if you liked the conditions or not. 

 

Public Announcements:

We still need volunteers and observers!  Call us at the office for more info, 259-7155 for more info, or 636-3363 after hours.  Get ready for our avalanche awareness courses coming in January.  Check the education page for a course near you.

 

Word of the Day: 

Wind Transport:  What is that magical number for wind speeds is fast enough to transport snow?  15 mph is the speed in which snow will transport readily in the air.  Between 15 and 25 mph, snow will usually deposit in the upper parts of starting zones, closer to the ridges.  Between 25-35 mph, the snow will load farther down an avalanche path.  Winds greater than 35 mph usually blows the snow into the next state.